ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontario94Figure 6.11 Range of Variability of Estimated Streamflow6.6.8 SummaryAfter completing the tasks in this section the modellershould have:• Identified metrics and standards for comparison ofhydrologic output;• Setup the hydrologic model with future conditions,aside from meteorology;• Modelled future conditions; and• Compared future conditions scenarios.6.7 RecommendationsRecommendations are an important part of anyassessment. The assessment is undertaken toguide decisions on policy change and adaptationactions; recommendations provide this guidance.Recommendations should also be identify the need formore information, especially model input and testingdata, as well as information on poorly understoodprocesses and domains within the watershed. Thefollowing is provided for guidance.Guidance:Recommendations should be provided thataddress data shortcomings, future studies,ongoing monitoring and potential adaptationmeasures for the study area.6.7.1 Filling GapsData gaps are a major source of uncertainty in models;data gaps reduce the accuracy of simulated absolutevalues and reduce the confidence of modellers and nonmodellers in the final results. The proposed assessmentapproach requires that the modellers recognizepotential gaps at the onset, their potential effectson model validity and the need to fill in with the bestpossible alternative information. Recommendationsshould always include items relating to filling data gaps.The necessary action may include field monitoring,literature review, field or pilot scale research, or focussedfield surveys.