ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Appendix E E-45Subwatershed 19 Case Study Figure 6-9:MODFLOW mean annual groundwater discharge with GCM climate change scenarios.Mean monthly groundwater discharge is shown in Figure 6-10 for each GCM climate change scenario, as well as thebaseline climate. Seasonal groundwater discharge trends remain generally consistent with the baseline climate. Themajority of climate change scenarios result in monthly mean groundwater discharge that is similar to the simulatedmonthly mean groundwater discharge under the baseline climate. Six of the nine climate change scenarios predictmonthly groundwater discharge rates that are within the range (upper and lower deciles) of monthly groundwaterdischarge rates for the baseline climate. Two of the nine climate change scenarios result in a significant increase ingroundwater discharge for all months, while one climate change scenario results in a significant decrease ingroundwater discharge. Figure 6-10:MODFLOW mean monthly groundwater discharge with GCM climate change scenarios.