ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontario24For the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) ofthe IPCC, four new benchmark emission scenarios,called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs),are being developed and coordinated by the researchcommunity for use in climate model simulations and indeveloping climate scenarios (Moss et al., 2008). Globalscenarios will be developed for two periods that reflectimportant time-related considerations with respect toclimate modelling capabilities, climate system responsesand climate policy making time horizons. They include:• “Near-term” scenarios that cover the period to about2035; and• “Long-term” scenarios that cover the period to 2100and, in a more stylized way, the period out to 2300(Moss et al., 2008).Figure 3.3 Fossil CO 2, CH 4and SO 2emissions for six illustrative SRES non-mitigation emission scenarios, theircorresponding CO 2, CH 4and N 2O concentrations, radiative forcing and global mean temperature projections based on anSCM tuned to 19 atmosphere-ocean GCMs (Meehl et al., 2007, 803)