ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

More documents

Recommendations

Info

C-2Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in OntarioID IPCC Assessment Model GHG Emission Scenario Longitude Latitude47 AR4 GFDLCM2.1 SR-A1B -81.25 43.4848 AR4 GFDLCM2.1 SR-B1 -81.25 43.4820 AR4 GISSAOM SR-A1B -82.00 43.5021 AR4 GISSAOM SR-B1 -82.00 43.5022 AR4 GISSE-H SR-A1B -82.50 42.0023 AR4 GISSE-R SR-A2 -82.50 42.0024 AR4 GISSE-R SR-B1 -82.50 42.0049 AR4 HADCM3 SR-A2 -78.75 45.0050 AR4 HADCM3 SR-A1B -78.75 45.0051 AR4 HADCM3 SR-B1 -78.75 45.0025 AR4 HadGEM1 SR-A2 -79.69 44.3826 AR4 HadGEM1 SR-A1B -79.69 44.3827 AR4 INMCM3.0 SR-A2 -80.00 44.0028 AR4 INMCM3.0 SR-A1B -80.00 44.0029 AR4 INMCM3.0 SR-B1 -80.00 44.0030 AR4 IPSLCM4 SR-A2 -78.75 44.3731 AR4 IPSLCM4 SR-A1B -78.75 44.3732 AR4 IPSLCM4 SR-B1 -78.75 44.3733 AR4 MIROC3.2 hires SR-A1B -79.88 44.3034 AR4 MIROC3.2 hires SR-B1 -79.88 44.3035 AR4 MIROC3.2 medres SR-A2 -78.75 43.2536 AR4 MIROC3.2 medres SR-B1 -78.75 43.2552 AR4 MIROC3.2 medres SR-A1B -78.75 43.2537 AR4 MRI CGCM2.3.2a SR-A2 -78.75 43.2538 AR4 MRI CGCM2.3.2a SR-A1B -78.75 43.2539 AR4 MRI CGCM2.3.2a SR-B1 -78.75 43.2553 AR4 NCARCCSM3 SR-A2 -80.16 44.1254 AR4 NCARCCSM3 SR-A1B -80.16 44.1255 AR4 NCARCCSM3 SR-B1 -80.16 44.1256 AR4 NCARPCM SR-A2 -78.75 43.2557 AR4 NCARPCM SR-A1B -78.75 43.25Scenarios selected for Scatter Plot MethodScenarios selected for Percentile MethodThe output from HSP-F for the future climates selected using the Scatter Plot Method, Percentile Method and AllFuture Climates is organized into a series of figures for comparison purposes:• Figures C.1 to C.6 illustrate the mean monthly recharge and monthly recharge statistics for sandy soils,silty soils and clayey soils for each scenario-generating method.• Figures C.7 to C.12 illustrate the mean monthly runoff and monthly runoff statistics for sandy soils, siltysoils and clayey soils for each scenario-generating method.• Figures C.13 to C.18 illustrate the mean monthly evapotranspiration and monthly evapotranspirationstatistics for sandy soils, silty soils and clayey soils for each scenario-generating method.By comparing the output obtained using each method, it is possible to understand the impact that the number ofscenarios has on the range in output. Evidently, using all 57 scenarios provides the largest range in output; however
Appendix C C-3GCM-Based Change Field Assessment and Hydrologic Modellingthe Percentile Method provides a very similar range using only 8 (or up to 10) scenarios. The scatter plot methodshows the extremes, but does not show a central tendency.Mean Monthly Recharge(mm/month)454035302520151050Scatter Plot Method - Mean Monthly Recharge per Scenario for Sandy SoilsJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecFuture 11Future 29Future 31Future 50Base LineMean Monthly Recharge(mm/month)454035302520151050Percentiles Method - Mean Monthly Recharge per Scenario for Sandy SoilsJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecFuture 21Future 22Future 35Future 38Future 40Future 48Future 53Future 54Base LineMean Monthly Recharge(mm/month)All 57 Future Climate Scenarios - Mean Monthly Recharge per Scenario for Sandy45Soils4035302520151050Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecFuture 1 Future 2Future 3 Future 4Future 5 Future 6Future 7 Future 8Future 9 Future 10Future 11 Future 12Future 13 Future 14Future 15 Future 16Future 17 Future 18Future 19 Future 20Future 21 Future 22Future 23 Future 24Future 25 Future 26Future 27 Future 28Future 29 Future 30Future 31 Future 32Future 33 Future 34Future 35 Future 36Future 37 Future 38Future 39 Future 40Future 41 Future 42Future 43 Future 44Future 45 Future 46Future 47 Future 48Future 49 Future 50Future 51 Future 52Future 53 Future 54Future 55 Future 56Future 57 Base LineFigure C.1 Mean Monthly Recharge for Sandy Soils computed using the Scatter Plot Method (top), the PercentileMethod (middle) and All Future Climates (bottom).
Page 3:
Guide for Assessment of HydrologicE
Page 7 and 8:
Executive SummaryExecutive Summaryi
Page 9 and 10:
Executive Summaryv2007c). The magni
Page 11 and 12:
Executive Summaryviiwatering needs
Page 13 and 14:
Executive SummaryixSummary GCM cont
Page 15 and 16:
Executive SummaryxiStep-by-step Gui
Page 17 and 18:
Table of ContentsTable of Contentsx
Page 19 and 20:
Table of Contentsxv6.5.7 Compare Al
Page 21:
Executive SummaryxviiTable 6.6 Scen
Page 24 and 25:
Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
555
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 49 and 50:
Estimating Future Local Climates4.
Page 51 and 52:
Estimating Future Local Climates29c
Page 53 and 54:
Estimating Future Local Climates31
Page 55 and 56:
Estimating Future Local Climates33
Page 57 and 58:
Hydrological Impacts5. Hydrologic I
Page 59 and 60:
Hydrological Impacts375.1.2 Toronto
Page 61 and 62:
Hydrological Impacts39frequency of
Page 63 and 64:
Hydrological Impacts41for clouds to
Page 65 and 66:
Hydrological Impacts43mid-winter me
Page 67 and 68:
Hydrological Impacts45reduce the st
Page 69 and 70:
Climate Change Assessment6. Climate
Page 71 and 72:
Climate Change Assessment49• Plan
Page 73 and 74:
Climate Change Assessment51This app
Page 75 and 76:
Climate Change Assessment53inflow/o
Page 77 and 78:
Climate Change Assessment55As the c
Page 79 and 80:
Climate Change Assessment57Guidance
Page 81 and 82:
Climate Change Assessment59Further,
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Climate Change Assessment63Table 6.
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Climate Change Assessment67The mean
Page 91 and 92:
Climate Change Assessment69Table 6.
Page 93 and 94:
Climate Change Assessment71Figure 6
Page 95 and 96:
Climate Change Assessment73Figure 6
Page 97 and 98: Climate Change Assessment75Figure 6
Page 99 and 100: Climate Change Assessment776.4.4 De
Page 101 and 102: Climate Change Assessment79change f
Page 103 and 104: Climate Change Assessment81referenc
Page 105 and 106: Climate Change Assessment83• Sele
Page 107 and 108: Climate Change Assessment854. STMND
Page 109 and 110: Climate Change Assessment87Table 6.
Page 111 and 112: Climate Change Assessment89When com
Page 113 and 114: Climate Change Assessment91charts i
Page 115 and 116: Climate Change Assessment93With cli
Page 117: Climate Change Assessment956.7.2 Fu
Page 120 and 121: Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic
Page 137 and 138: Appendix A A-1Watershed and Receivi
Page 139: Appendix A A-3Watershed and Receivi
Page 143 and 144: Appendix B B-1GCM Modelling GroupsT
Page 145: Appendix CGCM-Based Change FieldAss
Page 150 and 151: C-4Guide for Assessment of Hydrolog
Page 156 and 157: C-10Guide for Assessment of Hydrolo
Page 169: Appendix DRCM and GCM Data Conversi
Page 172 and 173: D-2Guide for Assessment of Hydrolog
Page 175 and 176: Appendix E E-1Subwatershed 19 Case
Page 199 and 200:
Appendix E E-25Subwatershed 19 Case
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Page 231:
show all

ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?