ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

E-4Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in Ontario This case study describes the application of the methodology described in the “Guide for Assessment of HydrologicEffects of Climate Change in Ontario” to a subwatershed located in Southwestern Ontario. This subwatershed,referred to as Subwatershed 19, forms the headwaters of the Credit River and also contains portions of the Towns ofOrangeville, Mono, and Amaranth. The case study includes the application of a continuous streamflow model andgroundwater flow model to estimate the hydrologic effects of a series of future climate scenarios. The case study alsoconsiders the impact of future climate scenarios on water budget assessments being conducted to meet therequirements of the Province of Ontario’s Clean Water Act (2006). The case study is not intended to providecomplete documentation on the development, calibration and application of these models; rather it is developed as aconcise reference on applying, analyzing, and visualizing the results of a climate change impact assessment. The study area is illustrated in Figure 1-1 and includes the Town of Orangeville, and portions of the Town of Monoand Townships of East Garafraxa, and Amaranth (Dufferin County) as well as portions of the Town of Caledon(Region of Peel). The study area lies within the headwaters of the Credit, Humber, Nottawasaga, and Grand Rivers,and is often referred to as “Headwaters Country”. As mentioned, Subwatershed 19 lies within the Credit RiverWatershed.Figure 1-1:Subwatershed 19 – Headwaters of the Credit River Watershed.