ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

E-40Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in OntarioThe distribution of mean annual streamflows by relative amount of deviation from the current climate streamflow isshown as a histogram in Figure 6-1: HSP-F annual streamflow with GCM climate change scenarios.This histogram indicates the prevailing trends with a central tendency and extremes in terms of mean annualstreamflow among the nine future climates. Four out of nine climate change scenarios predict up to a 10% increase inmean annual flow. Two scenarios predict an increase greater than 10%; two scenarios predict a 0 to 10% decrease,with one scenario predicting a decrease in mean annual flow greater than 10%. Figure 6-1:HSP-F annual streamflow with GCM climate change scenarios. Figure 6-2:Histogram of mean annual streamflow with GCM climate change scenarios.The seasonality and monthly distributions of streamflow are also significantly altered under climate change conditions.This aspect of hydrology is of major interest to managers as hydrologic issues and concerns may be seasonal orlimited to specific periods of the year.