ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

E-46Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in OntarioFigure 6-11 and Figure 6-12 show annual and mean monthly groundwater discharge, respectively, from one of theSDSM climates, with its corresponding GCM scenario. Groundwater discharge from the baseline climate is alsoincluded. As seen in Figure 6-11, although the sequence of annual values is very different, the SDSM-predictedannual groundwater discharge varies over the same range as the GCM change field climate.Similarly to the streamflow projections (Figure 6-7), SDSM monthly groundwater discharge follows similar trends asthe GCM change field scenario values, except for the winter months when the SDSM groundwater discharge is lowerthan the GCM scenario results. The explanation for the lower SDSM winter streamflow and groundwater dischargelies in the air temperature. As shown in Figure 5-7, winter air temperatures are significantly lower with the SDSMclimates compared with the associated change field climates. The colder winter with SDSM would result in a moretypical annual pattern of runoff, with more snowpack and a larger spring freshet. Figure 6-11:MODFLOW mean annual groundwater discharge with SDSM climate change scenarios. Figure 6-12:MODFLOW mean monthly groundwater discharge with SDSM climate change scenarios.