ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Appendix E E-55Subwatershed 19 Case Study321Current91630334048535438Drawdown (m)0-1-2-30 5 10 15 20 25 30Simulation Time (Years)Figure 7-4: Change in Water Level for each Future Climate Scenario.For this example, only one climate scenario (#30, IPSLCM4-SR-A2) shows a long-term trend of decreasinggroundwater levels as compared to the current climate scenario. All other scenarios simulate groundwater levels thatare either similar to or higher than those resulting from the current climate scenario. This climate scenario has thelowest annual precipitation of all those examined.If these results were translated into the actual Tier Three Local Area Risk Assessment, it could be concluded that theglobal climate models indicate a likelihood that groundwater levels at the municipal well identified may rise in thefuture. These scenario results apply only to Subwatershed 19 and do not consider impacts from other futureconditions such as land development or increased water demands.