ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Executive SummaryxiStep-by-step Guide to Hydrological AssessmentIncorporating Climate ChangeThis section provides a condensed version of themajor steps involved in conducting a hydrologicassessment incorporating climate change. This list mayserve as a checklist to guide project planning. A moredetailed version is provided in Chapter 6 (Chapter 6section numbers correspond to the steps in this table),with necessary supporting material included in theappendices. The Guide provides a perspective andrationale for the recommended procedures. Areaswhere improved techniques are being developed areidentified.Assessment of the hydrological effects of climatechange is a challenging technical endeavour in an areaof rapidly-expanding knowledge. Hydrologists andmodellers who intend to conduct a climate changeanalysis of their watershed should first become familiarwith all of the material in this document. Properlyused, the existing assessment techniques describedin this Guide provide a good basis for developmentof adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, due diligencerequires that modellers remain in close touch withresearch findings and incorporate improved techniquesas they become available.Modelling andConsiderations/TasksCommentsAssessment Steps1. Definition of Problem Identify goals and objectives Section 6.1.1 lists seven commonly chosen goalsand objectivesDelineate study areaInclude surface and subsurface domainsIdentify hydrologic issues and concerns Specify targets, communities and water useactivities at risk, known trends and prevalentstresses and stressors in the systemDefine temporal aspects of analysisInclude modelling time step, model testingperiod and future time horizons2. Select ModellingMethods3. Model Setup andTesting4. Select Future ClimateScenariosDevelop an inventory of anticipated data andinformation needsConsider alternative approaches and selectpreferred approachReview models input requirementsReview hydrologic processesReview output capabilitiesReview documentation, technical support andcostsAcquire and organize information and data As listed in Step #1Setup model for study areaCalibrate and validateEstimate confidenceStep-by Step continued on next pageEstablish baseline climateInclude a list of anticipated gaps and measuresneeded to fill gapsSimple vs. complex models, single model vs.two models, linked vs. conjunctive modelsQuestion whether needs can be met and criticalgaps filled.Question whether the model uses algorithms forkey processes that can accurately represent thesensitivity of the process to climate change.Review the degree to which the model producesthe necessary information for assessment.Can the model be run by available staff andproduce results within required timelines andbudget?Level of detail and resolution must match outputexpectations and objectivesFully test models abilities by season andweather conditionIdentify sources of uncertainty and overall skillof modelGenerally 1961 to 1990 for GCM and similarperiod or longer for the current climatologicalbaseline