ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

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E-32Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in Ontario32.52mm/6hr1.510.5001/06/204108/06/204115/06/204122/06/204129/06/204106/07/204113/07/204120/07/204127/07/204103/08/204110/08/204117/08/204124/08/2041Figure 5-2: Simulated 6 hour precipitation volumes from CRCM-A2 for June to August, 2041. Application of the change field method to GCM scenario data does not necessitate disaggregation of data. Existingtime series, at appropriate time steps, are simply adjusted to reflect future conditions in this method. It is necessary todisaggregate simulated daily climate data generated using SDSM to hourly time steps.Since HSP-F has been selected as the streamflow model for this study it is convenient to use the WDMUtil tool fordata management (Hummel et al., 2001). HSP-F requires the use of WDMUtil to setup and manage the model inputand output. WDMUtil contains utilities to disaggregate daily data to hourly time step as required by HSP-F in thisstudy. Hourly air temperatures have been generated from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures byassuming that these temperatures occur at established times of the day and that diurnal temperature patterns follow aconstant pattern. Precipitation cannot be disaggregated through any hourly distribution function as this would stronglybias the results. Instead four time series were developed for each SDSM precipitation time series. Daily precipitationwas assumed to fall evenly over 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours and 24 hours for four alternate intensities. All four caseshave been applied to the climate change impact assessment. The future local climates generated in this study are summarized in Table 5-2 by totals or averages, as follows:• Current climate (ID 99);• Nine GCM based change field climates (the Percentile Method) with IDs from 9 to 54;• Two GCM based change field climates corresponding to the SDSM applications (IDs 58 and 59), and• Two SDSM generated climates (IDs 60 and 61).
Appendix E E-33Subwatershed 19 Case StudyTable 5-2: Summary of climate scenarios used in study.ID GCM - Scenario Average AirTemperatureTotalPrecipitationTotal SolarRadiationAverageWind SpeedTotalPotential ET( o C) (mm) (Langleys) (m/s) (mm)9 CNRMCM3 - SR-A2 8.5 986 112,010 12.32 99016 FGOALS-g1.0 - SR-B1 7.6 914 110,697 12.26 93730 IPSLCM4 - SR-A2 9.6 813 105,826 12.20 97133 MIROC3.2 hires - SR-A1B 10.0 895 107,291 12.39 1,01438 MRI CGCM2.3.2a - SR-A1B 8.4 940 107,333 12.26 93540 CSIROMk3 - SR-A2 8.6 918 111,430 12.29 95048 GFDLCM2.1 - SR-B1 8.2 881 106,784 12.29 91953 NCARCCSM3 - SR-A2 9.4 889 108,071 12.29 98054 NCARCCSM3 - SR-A1B 9.2 924 107,362 12.29 97458 CGCM3T47(Run4) - SR-A2 9.1 947 109,369 12.37 1,01659 CGCM3T47(Run4) - SR-A1B 9.0 910 109,737 12.34 1,01860 SDSM - CGCM - SR-A1B 7.9 923 109,767 12.35 98761 SDSM - CGCM - SR-A2 8.0 926 109,400 12.37 98399 Current Climate (Baseline) 6.0 868 109,965 12.29 850Figure 5-3 shows the annual mean values for five climate parameters for the nine Percentile Method climates for the2050s compared with the current condition climate (i.e., 1961 to 1990). Solar radiation and wind speed do notdemonstrate significant relative annual change. Air temperature changes range from +1.6 o C to +4.0 o C, precipitationchanges range from -6% to +14%, and PET changes range from +8% to +20%. Figure 5-3: Mean annual meteorological parameters for current and GCM future climates.
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Guide for Assessment of HydrologicE
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Executive SummaryExecutive Summaryi
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Executive Summaryv2007c). The magni
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Executive Summaryviiwatering needs
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Executive SummaryixSummary GCM cont
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Estimating Future Local Climates4.
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Hydrological Impacts5. Hydrologic I
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Hydrological Impacts375.1.2 Toronto
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Hydrological Impacts39frequency of
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Hydrological Impacts45reduce the st
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Climate Change Assessment6. Climate
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Appendix A A-1Watershed and Receivi
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Appendix A A-3Watershed and Receivi
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Appendix B B-1GCM Modelling GroupsT
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Appendix CGCM-Based Change FieldAss
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