ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontarioxiv5.2.4 Streamflow...........................................................................................................................................445.2.5 Water Quality.......................................................................................................................................456 Climate Change Assessment.........................................................................................................................................476.1 Define Problem..................................................................................................................................................476.1.1 Goals and Objectives..........................................................................................................................476.1.2 Issues and Concerns............................................................................................................................476.1.3 Spatial Considerations........................................................................................................................486.1.4 Temporal Considerations....................................................................................................................486.1.5 Resource Needs – Data and Information..........................................................................................496.1.6 Summary...............................................................................................................................................496.2 Select Hydrologic Modelling Methods...........................................................................................................506.2.1 Select Water Resources Modelling Approach..................................................................................506.2.1.1 Streamflow Generation Model.............................................................................................506.2.1.2 Linked Streamflow Generation and Groundwater Models................................................506.2.1.3 Coupled or Conjunctive Models..........................................................................................516.2.1.4 Modelling Approach Selection.............................................................................................516.2.2 Select Water Resources Model..........................................................................................................516.2.2.1 Input Requirements...............................................................................................................526.2.2.2 Identify Key Hydrological Processes and Methods............................................................526.2.2.3 Required Output....................................................................................................................566.2.2.4 Hydrologic Model Price, Support, and Documentation....................................................576.2.3 Summary...............................................................................................................................................576.3 Model Setup and Testing.................................................................................................................................576.3.1 Data Acquisition and Setup................................................................................................................576.3.2 Calibration/Validation.........................................................................................................................576.3.3 Determine Errors and Confidence.....................................................................................................586.3.4 Summary...............................................................................................................................................596.4 Select Climate Scenarios..................................................................................................................................596.4.1 Define Baseline Climate or Current Conditions................................................................................606.4.2 Select GCM Scenario Suite.................................................................................................................616.4.2.1 Vintage of the GCM..............................................................................................................616.4.2.2 Type of GHG Emission Scenario...........................................................................................626.4.2.3 Performance of GCMs in Replicating Current Climate......................................................646.4.2.4 Availability of Critical Atmospheric Parameters for the HydrologicAssessment Application........................................................................................................646.4.2.5 Selection of Baseline Period and Future Time Period for the GCM Component............646.4.3 Selecting the Number of Climate Change Scenarios......................................................................656.4.3.1 Scatter Plot Method - ‘Bounding the Uncertainty’.............................................................666.4.3.2 Percentiles Method...............................................................................................................666.4.3.3 Analysis of Results..................................................................................................................726.4.3.4 Recommended Approach to Scenario Selection...............................................................726.4.4 Determine Independent Factors for Future Scenarios.....................................................................776.4.5 Summary...............................................................................................................................................776.5 Develop Future Local Climates........................................................................................................................776.5.1 Overview...............................................................................................................................................776.5.2 GCM Change Fields............................................................................................................................786.5.3 Statistical Downscaling Method.........................................................................................................806.5.4 Weather Generator Method...............................................................................................................826.5.5 Regional Climate Model.....................................................................................................................846.5.6 Disaggregate Daily Data and Potential Evapotranspiration Generation.......................................85