ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

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Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in Ontario60This ensures that the hydrologic assessment exploresa wide range of possible impacts and adaptationoptions to inform decision and policy making.• Criterion 5: Accessible. The climate change scenariosshould be straightforward to obtain, interpret andapply for the hydrologic impact assessment.The process of developing GCM-based climatechange scenarios for hydrologic impact and adaptationassessments is a challenging endeavour; there arenumerous factors to consider and there is an ongoingevolution of climate modelling results and impactsand adaptation methodologies. The key issue is howto develop climate change scenarios that reflectthe future uncertainty in the climate system yet arerobust enough to provide guidance for decisionmaking?The hydrologic assessment community shouldexplore the range of uncertainty and use as manyclimate change scenarios as possible in order to fullyinvestigate the:• Scope of future conditions;• Impacts that will result; and• Potential adaptation strategies.This section was developed to guide the user throughkey considerations for:• Selecting the climatological baseline; and• Selecting candidate GCM output for scenariodevelopment.Environment Canada has developed the CanadianClimate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN), a websitefor disseminating climate change scenarios (and otherclimate change impact and adaptation information). Thissection of the Guide relies on the access to the toolsand data on the CCCSN (www.cccsn.ca) to develop theGCM-based climate change scenarios. Users of thisGuide should be aware that all of the website addresses,provided in this Guide, are subject to possible changein the future as information distribution systems areupgraded.6.4.1 Define Baseline Climate or Current ConditionsdefBaseline/Reference • The baseline (or reference)is any datum against which change is measured.It might be a “current baseline”, in which case itrepresents observable, present-day conditions.It might also be a “future baseline”, which isa projected future set of conditions excludingthe driving factor of interest. Alternativeinterpretations of the reference conditions cangive rise to multiple baselines (IPCC-TGICA et al.,2007).An initial step in any hydrologic assessment ischaracterizing the present-day or recent climatein a region – the climatological baseline. Since thebaseline establishes the reference from which changes,impacts and adaptations are assessed, its selection (inconjunction with climate change scenarios used) canstrongly influence the outcome of a climate impactassessment. Carter et al. (1994) recommended thatthe baseline for the current climate meet the followingcriteria:• It represents present-day or recent “average, normal”climate in the study region;• The time series is of sufficient duration to encompassa range of climatic variations, including a number ofsignificant weather anomalies/extremes (e.g., severedroughts, high precipitation events and warm spells);• The data for the critical parameters/elements for theassessment are abundant, adequately distributedover the study area and readily available;• The data meet standards for high quality observedclimatological data with few missing data; and• The period overlaps sufficiently with baseline periodselected for the GCM-based baseline climate (usually1961 to 1990) in calculation of change fields forexample.
Climate Change Assessment61Guidance:The time period selected for the current baseclimate should be of sufficient duration toencompass a range of climatic variations andoverlap with the GCM-based base line climate.The 30-year climatological “normal” period establishedby the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hasbeen used for the baseline climate. The period 1961to 1990 has been most commonly used; however, thenext normal period 1971 to 2000 and other periodssometimes longer than 30 years have also been used(e.g., Great Lakes water level studies). The time periodused should be based on what period provides thebest available data for the study area and align with atypical dataset that is in general use for other planning/assessment applications. Most importantly, the baselinefor the current climate must overlap with the GCMbasedbaseline climate for change field calculations.Typically data from the Environment Canada climateand meteorological observing network can be usedfor the baseline data set as well as observing stationsserving the programs of other organizations includingthe Province of Ontario, conservation authorities, andmunicipalities.To determine which Environment Canada observingstations are within the study area and can be used forbaseline climate stations, use:http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/advanceSearch/searchHistoricData_e.htmlThe CCCSN web site provides access from DownloadData - Observations to obtain a list of potential climateparameters and portals to download data for baselinedata compilation at:http://www.cccsn.ca/Download_Data/Observations-e.htmlBaseline climate data for research purposes can beobtained through the DAI site (after registering) at:http://quebec.ccsn.ca/DAI/observed-e.htmlAlso, climate data can be downloaded as hourly data fora period of one month at a time, daily data for a periodof one year at a time, and monthly data for the entireperiod of record for a particular station at:http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/canada_e.htmlA full time series of daily climate data (air temperature,precipitation and snow-on-the-ground) for a largenumber of stations across Canada are available fordownload at:ftp://arcdm20.tor.ec.gc.ca/pub/dist/CDCD/For larger data sets, multiple sites and hourly data, acustomized, cost-recovery order can be placed throughEnvironment Canada Climate Services by contactingClimate.Services@ec.gc.ca.6.4.2 Select GCM Scenario SuiteThis section of the Guide helps users choose GCMbasedclimate change scenarios for hydrologic impactassessments. The acquisition of the necessary dataand generation of future climates from these data isdiscussed. Practical considerations in choosing climatechange scenarios include the vintage of the GCM andthe type of GHG emission scenarios, as outlined in thefollowing subsections.6.4.2.1 Vintage of the GCMGuidance:The most recent simulations from the GCMs fromthe leading modelling centres should be used asthey ensure that the most up-to-date science isaccessed.GCMs that are used for scenario development shouldbe participating in the World Climate Research Program(WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Program(CMIP) and contributing to the IPCC Fourth AssessmentReport (AR4) process (see http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip/index.php). The suite of candidate GCMsfrom the AR4 is listed in Appendix B. Simulations from
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Appendix A A-1Watershed and Receivi
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Appendix B B-1GCM Modelling GroupsT
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Appendix CGCM-Based Change FieldAss
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Appendix E E-1Subwatershed 19 Case
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