ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Table of ContentsTable of ContentsxiiiAcknowledgements..................................................................................................................................................................iExecutive Summary................................................................................................................................................................. iiiTable of Contents.................................................................................................................................................................. xiii1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................................11.1 Purpose and Objectives......................................................................................................................................21.2 Target Users and Applications...........................................................................................................................21.3 General Approach...............................................................................................................................................31.4 Guide Layout.......................................................................................................................................................42 Background........................................................................................................................................................................52.1 Global Climate Change – The Big Picture........................................................................................................52.1.1 What’s Happening Globally..................................................................................................................52.1.2 What to Expect in the Future...............................................................................................................62.2 What’s Happening Locally in Ontario..............................................................................................................102.2.1 Changes We’ve Experienced.............................................................................................................102.2.2 Ontario’s Future Climate.....................................................................................................................112.3 Considerations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Ontario..........................................................122.3.1 Drinking Water Source Protection.....................................................................................................142.3.2 Water Demand Estimates and Water Allocation Planning..............................................................142.3.3 Subwatershed Planning......................................................................................................................152.3.4 Environmental Monitoring Programs.................................................................................................152.3.5 Stormwater Management...................................................................................................................152.3.6 Dams/Reservoirs..................................................................................................................................173 Future Climate Scenarios...............................................................................................................................................193.1 Global Climate Models (GCMs).......................................................................................................................193.2 GHG Emission Scenarios..................................................................................................................................224 Estimating Future Local Climates..................................................................................................................................274.1 GCM-Based Scenarios......................................................................................................................................274.2 Synthetic and Analogue Scenarios..................................................................................................................284.2.1 Synthetic Scenarios.............................................................................................................................284.2.2 Analogue Scenarios............................................................................................................................284.3 Downscaling.......................................................................................................................................................294.3.1 Statistical - Regression........................................................................................................................304.3.2 Statistical - Weather Generators........................................................................................................314.3.3 Dynamical - Regional Climate Models (RCMs).................................................................................324.4 Summary of Local Climate Generation Techniques.......................................................................................335 Hydrologic Impacts.........................................................................................................................................................355.1 Studies Completed in Ontario.........................................................................................................................355.1.1 Credit Valley Conservation (CVC) (Walker and Dougherty, 2008)....................................................355.1.2 Toronto Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) (Walker, 2006).......................................................375.1.3 Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) (Bellamy et al., 2002).................................................375.1.4 Hydrologic Models for Inverse Climate Change Impact Modelling(Upper Thames River Basin) (Cunderlik and Simonovic, 2005, 2007)..............................................385.1.5 The Impact of Climate Change on Spatially Varying Groundwater Rechargein the Grand River Watershed (Ontario) (Jyrkama and Sykes, 2007)...............................................395.2 Hydrologic Processes........................................................................................................................................395.2.1 Evapotranspiration..............................................................................................................................395.2.2 Winter Conditions...............................................................................................................................415.2.2.1 Frozen Soil..............................................................................................................................415.2.2.2 Snow.......................................................................................................................................415.2.3 Groundwater Recharge.......................................................................................................................43