ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

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E-16Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in OntarioDRAINAGE NETWORK SCHEMATIC1907a150.2Lower Monora Creek,1907b South Arm211.51908302.61909Lower Monora Creek, North Arm1905a 1905b242.71906169.5 587.61910Middle Monora Creek190373.8190470519111182Upper Monora Creek1902 274.1 1901192019121921 262.1 1919 191824551923 1917Island Lake1922287919141924Mill Creek1913512.21915792.7191638921925WPCP42791932 193051581931 1926415.119331927 1936 19285719 122.6 69.211261934Flow Node &Drainage Area (h.)58991929StreamReach 19351933 Catchment # MELVILLE GAUGE (60.8 km 2 )Figure 3-1: Subwatershed 19 tributary schematic.
Appendix E E-17Subwatershed 19 Case StudyThe groundwater model MODFLOW was used to simulate steady state groundwater conditions for the subwatershed.Based on hydrogeological investigations, groundwater simulations were made and yielded information on the steadystate transfer of groundwater between catchments and across subwatershed boundaries. Based on thesesimulations, it is clear that there is significant movement of water into or out of the subwatershed and across somecatchment boundaries. Subsurface transfers of water across the subwatershed boundaries must be taken intoaccount to establish an accurate subwatershed water balance. Figure 3-2 shows the subwatershed with the majorgroundwater transfers and groundwater pumping sites indicated. In this figure the width of the arrows is looselyproportional to the total transfer rates. These transfers are based upon long-term steady state simulations. Pumpingrates were taken from recent records (AquaResource Inc., 2008).Well 12/ TransmetroEBNFLO EnironmentalFigure 3-2: Transboundary groundwater fluxes included in streamflow model.Overall, there is significant movement of groundwater from the northern catchments of Subwatershed 19 to theNottawasaga Watershed to the north. About 13,000 m 3 /d of groundwater is estimated to discharge to theNottawasaga system. Other major transboundary groundwater flow occurs along the western boundary and is likelydue, in part, to the groundwater table drawdown caused by municipal groundwater pumping wells in the area. In totalabout 9,400 m 3 /d of groundwater is pumped from wells along the western side of the subwatershed.Transboundary losses of groundwater totals about 14,600 m 3 /d, while about 9,400 m 3 /d is pumped from municipalwells. These losses are partially offset with transboundary groundwater inflows of about 12,600 m 3 /d. The WPCPdischarges (12,000 to 13,000 m 3 /d) return all of the pumped groundwater and more to the river.The streamflow model was setup to account for the net effects of transboundary groundwater flow and groundwaterpumping to ensure that the overall water balance is accurate.
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Guide for Assessment of HydrologicE
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Executive SummaryExecutive Summaryi
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Executive Summaryv2007c). The magni
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Executive Summaryviiwatering needs
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Executive SummaryixSummary GCM cont
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Executive SummaryxiStep-by-step Gui
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Table of ContentsTable of Contentsx
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Table of Contentsxv6.5.7 Compare Al
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Executive SummaryxviiTable 6.6 Scen
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Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic
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Estimating Future Local Climates4.
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Estimating Future Local Climates29c
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Estimating Future Local Climates31
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Estimating Future Local Climates33
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Hydrological Impacts5. Hydrologic I
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Hydrological Impacts375.1.2 Toronto
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Hydrological Impacts39frequency of
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Hydrological Impacts41for clouds to
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Hydrological Impacts43mid-winter me
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Hydrological Impacts45reduce the st
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Climate Change Assessment6. Climate
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Climate Change Assessment49• Plan
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Climate Change Assessment51This app
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Climate Change Assessment55As the c
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Climate Change Assessment57Guidance
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Climate Change Assessment59Further,
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Climate Change Assessment63Table 6.
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Climate Change Assessment67The mean
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Climate Change Assessment854. STMND
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Climate Change Assessment89When com
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Climate Change Assessment93With cli
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Appendix A A-1Watershed and Receivi
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