ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Guide for Assessment of Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in OntarioxiiStep-by Step continuedModelling andAssessment Steps5. Select and ApplyClimate Methods toDevelop Future LocalClimates6. Assessment ofHydrologic Impacts ofClimate ChangeConsiderations/TasksDownload GCM temporal dataDetermine GCM/SRES scenario suiteProcess monthly GCM temporal data anddevelop monthly change fieldsAlter existing weather data set to reflectchange fieldsDownload daily predictor, GCM and RCMdata sets, for current and future conditions fordownscalingGenerate future climates using statistical modeland weather generator (if possible)Process RCM data to create future climate dataset (if possible)Create evapotranspiration time series for allscenariosIf necessary process daily data to obtain datafor sub-daily time stepsCompare future climates to baseline climateDesign Assessment Scenarios and FutureConditionsModel hydrologic scenariosCompare hydrologic conditions and climatesCompare hydrologic changes in aggregateAssess overall uncertaintyCommentsTemperature and PrecipitationDetermine how many and which scenarios toapplyAt least temperature and precipitation andpossibly, solar radiation, wind and humidityBasis of future climateRepeat for each scenarioRepeat for each scenario desiredEvapotranspiration should be sensitive to futureclimateLand use, management practices, water usageand other factors should reflect future timehorizons studiedTabulate and compare in hydrological andmeteorological terms and identify causes ofchangeConsider all consequences in hydrologicallyinfluenced systemsBased on suite of scenario outcomes7. Recommendations Mitigation and adaptation Identify potential mitigation and adaptationmeasuresFuture studiesList studies to fill gaps, extend data basethrough monitoring and improve modelling andtechnical capacity