ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Table of Contentsxv6.5.7 Compare Alternative Climates...........................................................................................................866.5.8 Summary...............................................................................................................................................866.6 Assessment of Hydrologic Impacts..................................................................................................................876.6.1 Identify Reference Regime.................................................................................................................876.6.2 Select Metrics and Identify Standards...............................................................................................876.6.3 Setup Future Conditions Model(s).....................................................................................................896.6.4 Model Climate Change Impacts by Scenario...................................................................................896.6.5 Compare Changes in Climate Data...................................................................................................906.6.6 Compare Hydrologic Changes by Scenario......................................................................................906.6.7 Consider Uncertainty...........................................................................................................................926.6.8 Summary...............................................................................................................................................946.7 Recommendations............................................................................................................................................946.7.1 Filling Gaps..........................................................................................................................................946.7.2 Future Studies......................................................................................................................................956.7.3 Monitoring...........................................................................................................................................956.7.4 Adaptation...........................................................................................................................................956.7.5 Summary...............................................................................................................................................95Bibliography...........................................................................................................................................................................97Appendix A – Watershed and Receiving Water Model CapabilitiesAppendix B – GCM Modelling GroupsAppendix C – GCM-based Change Field Assessment and Hydrologic ModellingAppendix D – RCM and GCM Data ConversionAppendix E – Subwatershed 19 Case StudyList of FiguresFigure 1.1 Climate change impact assessment steps.....................................................................................................3Figure 2.1 Estimated probabilities for a mean surface temperature change exceeding 2°C in 2080 to 2099relative to 1980 to 1999 under the mid-range GHG emission scenario (SRES A1B scenario).Results are based on a single GCM (a, c), and a multiple GCM mean (b, d), for winter (a, b) andsummer (c, d). ((Meehl et al., 2007 811) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, Figure 10.30. Cambridge University Press).................................................................7Figure 2.2 Temperature and precipitation changes (between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099) for NorthAmerica averaged for 21 GCMs for the mid range emission scenario (i.e., A1B) ((Christensen etal., 2007b 890) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contributionto the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure11.12. Cambridge University Press)................................................................................................................8Figure 2.3 Schematic of coping range (Lemmen and Warren, 2004)..........................................................................13Figure 2.4 Adaptive measures to increase coping range (Lemmen and Warren, 2004)............................................13Figure 2.5 Example reservoir rule curve Grand River Conservation Authority (data source athttp://www.grandriver.ca/index/document.cfm?sec=2&sub1=0&sub2=0)..............................................17Figure 3.1 Conceptual structure of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model(Viner and Hulme, 1997)................................................................................................................................20Figure 3.2 Development of climate models through incorporation of new components/processes(Albritton et al., 2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Box 3, Figure 1. Cambridge University Press)..............................................................................................21