ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

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E-56Guide for Assessment of Hydrological Effects of Climate Change in Ontario The following are recommendations based on the climate change impact assessment for Subwatershed 19:• Data gaps should be filled to reduce uncertainties within the hydrologic modelling exercises and climatechange impact assessment. Key data gaps are itemized below in terms of the intensity and spatial extent ofstreamflow and meteorological monitoring. Improvements in these areas allow for more spatially detailedmodel calibration. Another data gap relating to climate change impact assessment includes estimates offuture rainfall intensity, duration and frequency that, if available, would allow simulation of peak flow response.• Low temperature and winter evapotranspiration should be investigated within Subwatershed 19 to ensure thatthis component of the water balance is accurately represented.• Continuously monitoring streamflow gauges should be established at representative tributary sites so thatheadwater tributaries can be calibrated. Recommended sites include the outlet of Island Lake and near themouths of Monora Creek and Mill Creek as a minimum.• Solar radiation, cloud cover, evaporation (daily) and precipitation (hourly) should be monitored in or nearIsland Lake.• Downscaling techniques were applied to address the potential effects of changes in climate variability;however, these methods may not be practical if drizzle effect is observed in datasets, as in this case study.• The climate change impact assessments should be reevaluated as new information becomes available, suchas improved downscaling techniques, including Regional Climate Model (RCM) scenarios.• Climate change adaptation methods for Subwatershed 19 should consider methods to increase groundwaterrecharge (i.e., infiltration) and reduce surface runoff as these processes may change in the future.• If climate change leads to intensification of storm events, there flood prone areas may be higher risk of floods.It is recommended that adaptation measures should be identified to minimize flood risk in these areas.• Water management in Subwatershed 19 should minimize water taking in summer months, shiftingwithdrawals to winter periods, where possible.• A list of potential adaptation measures should be developed for Subwatershed 19 and these should be testedin a feasibility study. In general, potential adaptation measures should include those that retain water in thesubwatershed as groundwater or in wetlands, reducing surface runoff and promoting recharge year round;those that reduce summer stream warming which stresses aquatic habitat and elevates evaporation rates;and those that promote water conservation to reduce water demand and groundwater pumping.• Island Lake water management should be evaluated in a climate change impact assessment with specificregards to its capability to provide augmenting flow and recreational habitat into the future.
Appendix E E-57Subwatershed 19 Case Study AquaResource Inc., 2008. Part A report, Conceptual & Numerical Model Development. Pilot Project for the MNR Tier3 Water Budget & Water Quantity Risk Assessment, Town of Orangeville.Bicknell, B., J. Imhoff, J. K. Jr, T. Jobes, and A. Donigian. 2001. Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN HSPF,Version 12 User's Manual. A report by AQUA TERRA Consultants, Mountainview, California to NationalExposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, US Environmental Protection Agency,Athens, Georgia.Clean Water Act. 2006. Province of Ontario.Credit Valley Conservation. 2009. Tier Two Integrated Water Budget Report – Credit Valley Source Protection Area.Source Protection Committee Accepted Draft.Credit Valley Conservation. 2008. Headwaters Subwatershed Study, Subwatershed 19, Phase 1: CharacterizationReport. A report by Credit Valley Conservation, Mississauga, Ontario.Credit Valley Conservation and EBNFLO Environmental. 2008. Watershed Model Development and Application toFuture Management Scenarios. A draft report for the CVC Water Quality Strategy.EBNFLO Environmental. 2009. Streamflow and Water Quality Model Setup and Scenario Modelling in Subwatershed19. A draft report for Credit Valley Conservation.Harbaugh, A.W., and McDonald, M.G., 1996, User’s documentation for MODFLOW-96, an update to the U.S.Geological Survey modular finite-difference ground-water flow model: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report91-484. 358 p.Hummel, P., J. Kittle, Jr., and M. Gray. 2001. WDMUtil Version 2.0, A tool for managing watershed modeling timeseries data, Users manual, A report to the U.S. EPA, EPA contract #68-C-98-101, Washington, D.C.Jensen, M. E., and H. R. Haise. 1963. Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation. Proc. American Society ofCivil Engineers, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 89:15-41.McDonald, M.G., and A.W. Harbaugh, 1988. A Modular Three-Dimensional Finite Difference Groundwater FlowModel. Techniques of Water Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey, Book 6: ModelingTechniques. U.S. Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey, National Centre, Reston, Virginia.Ontario Ministry of the Environment. 2007. DRAFT Assessment Report: Guidance Module 7. Water Budget andWater Quantity Risk Assessment. Accessible at: http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/envision/gp/5600e_waterbudget.pdfOntario Ministry of the Environment. 2009. Clean Water Act (2006). Technical Rules: Assessment Report.Schroeter & Associates. 2004. GAWSER: Guelph All-Weather Sequential-Events Runoff Model, Version 6.5, TrainingGuide and Reference Manual. Submitted to the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and the Grand RiverConservation Authority.Waterloo Hydrogeologic Inc., 2005. Visual MODFLOW v. 4.1, Users Manual for Professional Applications in Three-Dimensional Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Modeling. Waterloo, Ontario.
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Estimating Future Local Climates4.
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Estimating Future Local Climates29c
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Hydrological Impacts5. Hydrologic I
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Hydrological Impacts375.1.2 Toronto
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Hydrological Impacts39frequency of
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Hydrological Impacts45reduce the st
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Climate Change Assessment6. Climate
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Climate Change Assessment49• Plan
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Climate Change Assessment57Guidance
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Climate Change Assessment81referenc
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Appendix A A-1Watershed and Receivi
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Appendix A A-3Watershed and Receivi
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Appendix B B-1GCM Modelling GroupsT
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Appendix CGCM-Based Change FieldAss
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Appendix DRCM and GCM Data Conversi
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Appendix E E-1Subwatershed 19 Case
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Appendix E E-3Subwatershed 19 Case
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