ClimateChange Assessment Guide.pdf - University of Waterloo

Appendix C C-1GCM-Based Change Field Assessment and Hydrologic ModellingThis study has examined fifty-seven possible future climates. These are based on combinations of GCMs and GHGemission scenarios with available monthly change fields for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation and somefor wind speed. Wind speed change fields were available for 39 of the 57 climates (ID 1 to 39). The remainingclimates (ID 40 to 57) were modelled with no change in wind speed. The change fields were applied to the baselinecurrent climate (1961 to 1999) to develop the future climates representing the 2050s and used as input for thehydrologic modelling; the mean baseline climate conditions were included for comparison purposes.Two methods of screening GCM-GHG future climate scenarios were determined:(1) Scatter Plot Method(2) Percentile MethodThe results from these two methods are compared with the full range of scenarios (57) that met initial screeningbased on availability of elements (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed) necessary for hydrologicmodelling in HSP-F:(3) All Future ClimatesTable C.1 lists the 57 future climates - climate model, GHG emission scenarios and station coordinates which weremodelled using HSP-F. The future climates highlighted in dark grey were included in the Scatter Plot Method and thefuture climates in light grey were included in the Percentile Method.Table C.1. Suite of GCM GHG climate sensitivity runs considered for climate change scenario developmentID IPCC Assessment Model GHG Emission Scenario Longitude Latitude1 AR4 BCM2.0 SR-A2 -78.75 43.252 AR4 BCM2.0 SR-A1B -78.75 43.253 AR4 BCM2.0 SR-B1 -78.75 43.254 AR4 CGCM3T47(Run 1) SR-A2 -78.75 42.685 AR4 CGCM3T47(Run 1) SR-A1B -78.75 42.686 AR4 CGCM3T47(Run 1) SR-B1 -78.75 42.687 AR4 CGCM3T63 SR-A1B -78.75 43.258 AR4 CGCM3T63 SR-B1 -78.75 43.259 AR4 CNRMCM3 SR-A2 -78.75 43.2510 AR4 CNRMCM3 SR-A1B -78.75 43.2511 AR4 CNRMCM3 SR-B1 -78.75 43.2540 AR4 CSIROMk3 SR-A2 -80.63 43.8341 AR4 CSIROMk3 SR-A1B -80.63 43.8342 AR4 CSIROMk3 SR-B1 -80.63 43.8312 AR4 ECHAM5OM SR-A2 -80.63 43.8313 AR4 ECHAM5OM SR-A1B -80.63 43.8314 AR4 ECHAM5OM SR-B1 -80.63 43.8343 AR4 ECHO-G SR-A2 -78.75 42.6844 AR4 ECHO-G SR-A1B -78.75 42.6845 AR4 ECHO-G SR-B1 -78.75 42.6815 AR4 FGOALS-g1.0 SR-A1B -78.75 43.2516 AR4 FGOALS-g1.0 SR-B1 -78.75 43.2517 AR4 GFDLCM2.0 SR-A2 -81.25 43.0018 AR4 GFDLCM2.0 SR-A1B -81.25 43.0019 AR4 GFDLCM2.0 SR-B1 -81.25 43.0046 AR4 GFDLCM2.1 SR-A2 -81.25 43.48