UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT

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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT All seven countries would benefit from a stronger culture of evaluation in the area of STI policies. Deniz Eröcal and Igor Yegorov Istanbul Technical University's experimental solar-powered car Ariba VI negotiating heavy traffic on a bridge over the Bosphorus on its first long-distance test drive on 20 August 2013. Photo: © Istanbul Technical University Solar Car Team 312
12 . Countries in the Black Sea basin Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Turkey, Ukraine Deniz Eröcal and Igor Yegorov Countries in the Black Sea basin INTRODUCTION Turkey is making progress, others have lost ground For want of a better term, the seven countries covered in the present chapter shall be referred to collectively as the ‘Black Sea countries.’ They do not constitute a world region in the traditional sense 1 but they do present some structural similarities. For one thing, they share geographical proximity, with all but Armenia and Azerbaijan being situated in the Black Sea basin. In addition, all seven are middle-income economies seeking to move into a higher income bracket. Their differences are equally instructive. If we take trade in manufactured goods, for instance, we can discern three groups: countries with traditionally close economic integration with the Russian Federation (Armenia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine), some of which are now diversifying their trading partners (Moldova and Ukraine); countries which are increasingly integrated in global markets (Georgia and Turkey) and countries with a weak focus on trade in manufactured goods (Azerbaijan) [Table 12.1]. All seven, however, have made efforts over the past two decades to strengthen their mutual economic and institutional ties. The best illustration of this is the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (Box 12.1). Six of the seven Black Sea countries were part of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) up until the early 1990s. The seventh, Turkey, was less industrialized and had been beset by recurrent economic crises up until this period. A great deal has changed since. Turkey is gradually catching up to the advanced economies, whereas some of the other Black Sea countries are losing ground. Notwithstanding this, these seven countries are arguably more comparable with one another today in economic and technological terms than at any other time in modern history. Certainly, all harbour an undeniable potential for accelerated development. In the five years to 2013, the economies of Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Turkey grew faster than those of high-income countries – themselves beset by recession following the US subprime crisis – but below the average for middle-income economies. All but Azerbaijan and Belarus fell into recession in 2009 before returning to modest positive growth the following year. Ukraine’s economy shrank most in 2009, by 15%; it is the only Black Sea country where GDP per capita remains below 2008 levels. The current economic crisis in Ukraine is associated with the ongoing conflict, which saw GDP drop by more than 6% in 2014. Macro-economic indicators for most other countries have remained under control, with the notable exception of inflation in Belarus, which climbed to more than 50% in 2011 and 2012 before falling back to 18%, and unemployment, which has been cruising on a 16–18% plateau in Armenia and Georgia and at around 10% in Turkey and Ukraine, according to the International Labour Organization. Over this five-year period, only Turkey showed progress in terms of human development, as defined by the UNDP’s index. Growth in Azerbaijan was largely driven by high oil prices. Chapter 12 1. Bulgaria and Romania also lie on the Black Sea but they are covered in Chapter 9. Table 12.1: Socio-economic trends in the Black Sea countries Population trends Internet access Trends in GDP Employment Manufactured exports Population (‘000s) 2014 Cumulative growth 2008–2013 Per 100 population 2013 Per capita (current PPP$) 2008 Per capita (current PPP$) 2013 Average growth per annum 2008–2013 As a share of adult population 2013 (%) Share employed in industry, average 2010 –2012 (%) As a share of total merchandise exports, 2012 (%) As a share of GDP 2012 (%) Change over 10 years in share of GDP, 2012 (%) Armenia 2 984 0.0 46.3 7 099 7 774 1.7 63 17 22.1 3.2 -8.4 Azerbaijan 9 515 6.0 58.7 13 813 17 139 5.5 66 14 2.4 1.1 -0.9 Belarus 9 308 -2.1 54.2 13 937 17 615 4.4 56 26 46.7 33.8 -1.0 Georgia 4 323 -1.6 43.1 5 686 7 165 3.5 65 6 53.4 8.0 4.3 Moldova 3 461 -4.1 48.8 3 727 4 669 4.0 40 19 37.2 11.0 -1.0 Turkey 75 837 6.5 46.3 15 178 18 975 3.3 49 26 77.7 15.0 2.0 Ukraine 44 941 -2.6 41.8 8 439 8 788 -0.2 59 26 60.6 23.5 -5.0 Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics; for employment and manufactured exports: World Bank’s World Development Indicators, accessed November 2014 313
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UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Towards 2030
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