HANSA 11-2019

MÄrkte-Markets
Orders & Sales
New Orders Container
Only two orders were placed during the last
four weeks. Eastern Pacific ordered 11 LNGfuelled
ships at Korea`s Hyundai HI. Theygs
are scheduled to be delivered between 2022 and
2023 and are said to cost 136 mill. $ each. TVL
Group purchased one 1,096 TEU vessel at
Japanese shipbuilder Kyokuyo for delivery in
2021. The shipbuilder already built three such
vessels for TVL Group, all chartered to KMTC.
Secondhand Sales Container
Volumes were close to the level of the previous
period. In total, nine vessels changed hands,
ranging from 700 to 9,500 TEU. Tufton purchased
the 2,546 TEU »Maria-Katharina S«
for 8.6 mill. $, while BAL acquired 2007-built
»O.M. Autumni« (704 TEU) for 2.7 mill. $.
Danaos bought the 8,073 TEU vessel »Conti
Champion« (2005) for 25 mill. $, currently
on charter to MSC.
Demolition Sales
The situation remains unchanged – only a
few vessels were sold for scrap. The market
continues its sluggish development with
most recycling candidates receiving prices
below $400/ldt. However, Costamare
achieved a strong price for one of its oldest
ships. »MSC Sierra II« (2,024 TEU) was
sold for scrap to Indian buyers for $418/ldt
including 600 bunker tons. JG
Container ship t / c market
450
400
350
23.04.19
Container freight market
WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,210 $/FEU - 7.1 %
WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 1,402 $/FEU + 0.8 %
Dry cargo / Bulk
24.10.19
Month on Month 442 • - 0,2 %
Baltic Dry Index 1779 - 13.3 %
Spot time charter averages ($/day)
Capesize 5TC average 23,740 - 18.3 %
Panamax 4TC average (74k) 15,101 - 7.1 %
Supramax 10TC average (58k) 13,446 - 7.3 %
Handysize 6TC average 9,294 - 7.4 %
Forward / ffa front month Nov’19 ($/day)
Capesize 180k 20,789 - 19.2 %
Panamax 74k 13,389 - 2.8 %
MPP
October ’18
$ 7,499
TMI
Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index
October ’19
$ 7,515
12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel for a 6-12 months TC
Tankers
Shortsea / Coaster
Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 3,500 €/d + 25.0 %
HC Shortsea Index 16.71 + 6.7 %
ISTFIX Shortsea Index 531 + 9.7 %
Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round
voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index
tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix
Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea
Bunkers
COMPASS
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1312 + 54.5 %
Baltic Clean Tanker Index 856 + 86.0 %
IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 242 - 34.6 %
MGO Rotterdam $/t 582 + 0.0 %
Forward / Swap price Q4 / 19
IFO 380 Rotterdam $/t 245 - 5.8 %
Data per 23.10.2019, Alterations within four weeks
SPOTLIGHT
Bulker earnings stabilising
The dry cargo spot market has been in descent
since the high of early September,
with momentum down for capesize and
panamax ships in the Atlantic and the Pacific.
However, the downward trajectory
flattened out during the last weeks.
Average TC earnings seem to have found
some support at levels around 24-25,000 $/
day for capes and at 15,000 $/day for panamaxes
(82,500 dwt) which is still strong
compared with levels in recent years. Average
rates for 58,000 dwt supramaxes and
for 28,000 dwt handysize types were hovering
at around 13,500 $ and 9,300 $/d at
the time of writing – down around 7%
month-on-month. As in the container
market, the »scrubber effect« is considered
to be a major factor for spot vessel earnings
today, albeit exact data on the volume
of tonnage tied up by retrofits is missing.
The constraints seem to have gone a long
way in neutralising the impact of soaring
newbuilding deliveries in Q3 which were
at their highest level since early 2017. Cargo
demand also played a role, though, with
combined imports of coal, iron ore and
soyabeans in China reportedly reaching
a record volume in Q3 – over 400 mill. t.
In the panamax segment, grain liftings
on the East Coast of South America continued
to offer good support. Trade data
for Argentina and Brazil showed that their
combined exports surged to a record high
in Q3, as broker Simpson Spence Young
pointed out. Y-t-d volumes are up over
15 mill. t at 66 mill. t which also benefited
the smaller geared bulkers. Over in the
Pacific, the coal trades have shown robust
growth, with imports in China, India and
some other southeast Asian countries set
for steep y-o-y increases – a boon for panamaxes,
supramaxes and handies.
Market expectations for the rest of the
year are split, though, as China might well
apply strict import quotas again in the final
weeks of the year. The question in
that case is whether India can pick up the
slack. Its coal imports are poised to reach
a new high this year (perhaps as much
as 214 mill. t against 187 mill. t last year).
With steam coal inventories running at
low levels of just ten days of nationwide
consumption and domestic production
restrained by an extended monsoon season
and mining strikes, there could even
be more upside potential.
By contrast, the outlook for the steel and
iron ore sector – the largest source of cargo
for dry bulk shipping – has grown more
uncertain lately. According to the short
range outlook by the World Steel Association,
y-o-y growth in steel demand will
drop to 1.7% in 2020, down from 3.9%.
The fall would be entirely due to slackening
growth in China where demand is
forecast to expand by just 1.0%, against
+7.8% this year. On the other hand, the
rest of the world will see steel demand
growth pick up from 0.2% to 2.5%, according
to World Steel. This will be driven
by a recovery in Europe, South America
and Africa. While a slowdown in China is
bad news for capesize carriers that mainly
serve China, more steel trading (and perhaps
more importation of steel-making
ingredients) in the rest of the world might
spawn opportunities for smaller bulkers
and multipurpose vessels.
n
HANSA International Maritime Journal 11 | 2019
9