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6-4
persed areas ensured - a fact which is particularly important if nuclear states are planning
to provide nuclear fuel assurances to nonnuclear states.
ClVEN
SRCIFIED Ups SUPPLY
SPECIFIED REAClOR
DMLOPMENT OPTIONS
NUCLEAR GROWM POKNTIAL E j
aaa
The philosophy used in this study is
illustrated in Fig. 6.0-1. Given a specified
U308 supply and a specified set of reactor
development options, the potential role of
nuclear power, the resources required to
achieve this role, and the composition and
aEk
movement of fissile material were calculated.
22 The deployment of the indiv'idual reactors and
TIME
their associated fuel cycle facilities were
in all cases consistent with the nuclear
RESOURCE REQUIRWNTS AND pol icy option under consideration. The intro-
FISSILE M ERIAL LOCATION -&fbT3!4
I
MDL 7ID2-W I
Fig. 6.0-1. The Philosophy of the
Nuclear Systems Assessment Study.
duction date for each individual reactor con-
cept and fuel cycle facility was assumed to be
the earliest technologically feasible date.
This allows an evaluation of the maximum im-
pact of the system on any particular nuclear
option.
The effect of delaying the deployment
of a reactor/cycle because it produces undesirable consequences was determined simply by
eliminating it from the option.
It was assumed that a nuclear power system was adequate if its installed nuclear capacity
was 350 GWe in the year 2000 and a net increase of 15 GWe/yr was realized each year thereafter,
with the increase sustained by the U308 supply.
used in the study. A few runs were made assuming economic competition between nuclear
fuel and coal, the plants being selected to minimize the levelized cost of power over
time. These runs, described in Appendix D, indicated that for the assumptions used in
this analysis nuclear power did not compete well at U3O8 prices above $160/lb; therefore,
in the remaining runs an attempt was made to satisfy the demand for nuclear power with
U308 available for less than $160/lb U308.
chapter.
Two different optimizing patterns were
It is these runs that are described in this
The specific assumptions regarding the U3O8 supply are presented in Section 6.1 below,
which also includes descriptions of the operating characteristics of the individual reactors
utilized, the various nuclear policy options chosen for analyses, and the analytical method
applied. Section 6.2 then compares the results obtained for a selected set of nuclear policy
options, and Section 6.3 summarizes the conclusions reached on the basis of those comparisons.
The economic data base used for these studies is given in Appendix By and detailed results
for all the nuclear policy options are presented in Appendix C.