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A nuclear power systems evaluation such as the one performed in this study requires
three basic components. First, the various nuclear power systems to be analyzed must be
identified. Second, there must be an analytical model capable of modeling each system in
sufficient detail that differences between the systems can be accurately calculated. And
finally, a data base that contains both reactor performance data and economic data must be
developed. Sections 7.4.1 and 7.4.2 below give brief descriptions of the model and data
base as they were applied to this evaluation. The results of the analyses for specified
nuclear power systems are then sumnarized in Sections 7.4.3,
detai 1 ed resul ts presented In Appendi x C.
7.4.4 and 7.4.5, with the
7.4.1. The Analytical Method
Two fundamental aspects of the model used in the analyses relate to the nuclear
energy demand and the U308 supply, both of which have been specified above. The nuclear
energy demand assumed in the model is consistent with the current construction plans of
As more nuclear units were required, with the supply of
utilities through the 1980's.
low-cost U308 progressively depleted, it was assumed that more expensive lower-grade
uranium resources would be mined. This was modeled by assuming that the long-run marginal
cost of U308 was an increasing function of the cumulative amount mined. For a particular
nuclear pol icy option, the plant construction pattern was therefore governed by economics
and/or uranium utilization.
Two different optimizing patterns were used in the study. In the first runs
economic competition between nuclear fuels and coal was assumed, and the plants were
selected to minimize the levelized cost of power over time. These runs, which are pre-
sented in Appendix 0, indicated that nuclear power did not compete well at U3O8 prices
above $160/lb for the assumptions used in this study. Thus for the runs of all-nuclear
power systems, described in Chapter 6 and sumnarized here, an attempt was made to satisfy
the demand for nuclear power with the U3O8 available at a price less than $160/lb U308.
Other considerations also affected the selection of the nuclear power plants to be
constructed. For example, a reactor that required Pu or 233U could not be constructed
unless the projected supply of fissile material was sufficient throughout the reactor's
lifetime. In addition, a nuclear plant design that differed from established technology
could be introduced only at a limited rate. Furthermore, once the manufacturing capability
to produce a particular reactor type was well established, the maximum rate at which that
reactor type could lose its share of the new construction market was limited to a specified
rate.
Both the total power cost of each nuclear policy option and the total power cost
of each reactor type available in each option were calculated. For each reactor type, the
total power cost was calculated for four components -- capital, operation and maintenance,
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