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7.4.6 Conclusions
From the preceding discussion and the results presented in Chapter 6 and Appendix C,
the following conclusions may be drawn concerning the reactor options, the fuel cycle
options, and the U308 supply cases analyzed for this study.
the conclusions are tentative and may be changed as a result of different demand growth
projections or more accurate or improved reactor characterizations.
It should be emphasized that
If nuclear power systems were limited to the once-through cycle, it would be
necessary to utilize U308 sources at above $160/lb sometime between year 2009
and year 2035 in order to satisfy the projected nuclear power capacity demand.
If nuclear power systems were limited to the once-through cycle and to U&
supplies below $160/lb, the U.S. nuclear power capacity would peak some time
between 2009 and 2035. Nuclear power would fail to satisfy the projected
nuclear demand during the 10-year period preceding the peak. If improved LWR
designs and improved tails stripping techniques were implemented, the peaks
would occur 10 to 15 years later.
If the high-cost U308 supply is assumed (3 million ST below $160/lb), all
once-through systems, regardless of the converter type employed, result in
approximately the same maximum installed nuclear capacity.
U
nuclear power supply on the once-through cycle.
For less-restrictive
supply assumptions, advanced converters have time to increase the total
Thermal recycle systems have the capability of substantially reducing requirements
for U308 or of increasing the maximum installed capacity over the capacity of the
once-through cycle. The best thermal recycle systems can support over twice the
maximum instal led capacity of the once-through cycle, and, under the intermediate-
cost U308 supply assumption (6 million ST below $160/lb), they can fully support
the assumed nuclear power growth through year 2050.
The systems including breeders have the capability of substantially reducing the
mining requirements and/or increasing the maximum instal led capacity beyond thermal
systems with recycle. This capability is needed to satisfy the nuclear capacity
demand through year 2050 under the high-cost uranium supply assumption (3 million
ST below $160/lb).
Thermal recycle systems including denatured 233U reactors have the capability of
supporting more nuclear capacity than the thermal P U / ~ ~ recycle ~ U systems.
achieving this capability would usually require Pu utilization.
However,
From a resource utilization point of view, nuclear power systems utilizing denatured
2330 reactors can be started equally well with MEU(235)/Th or Pu/Th fuels, providing
the eventual use of the plutonium generated in the MEU(235)/Th cycle is assumed.