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ORNL-5388 - the Molten Salt Energy Technologies Web Site

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U39 PRICE Gf 40 $/I<br />

IN YEAR Of STARTUP<br />

REACTOR<br />

OPTIONS: LWR SSCR<br />

6-21<br />

TIME FRAME: 2010 TO 2040<br />

U308 PRICE: I40 $p IN YEAR OF STARTUP INCRWING TO<br />

180 S/I,AT THE END OF THE PLANT LIFE<br />

Since <strong>the</strong> valuation of <strong>the</strong> bred fissile material is related to <strong>the</strong> cumulative U308<br />

price structure, <strong>the</strong> rate at which <strong>the</strong> U308 i s consumed during a particular scenario also<br />

affects <strong>the</strong> time-dependent price calculated for <strong>the</strong> bred fissile material.<br />

tion of <strong>the</strong> resource base (i.e., a high energy demand) yields a rapidly rising shadow<br />

price. Such an effect is readily noticeable in <strong>the</strong> calculation of <strong>the</strong> power costs of<br />

breeder reactors since it is possible for <strong>the</strong> credit calculated for <strong>the</strong> bred material to<br />

exceed <strong>the</strong> period's charges for <strong>the</strong> reactor's inventory. Thus, <strong>the</strong> net fuel expense for<br />

certain systems producing highly valued fissile material can be negative, resulting in<br />

significant power cost differences when compared to <strong>the</strong> reactor systems operating with<br />

high-cost natural resources.<br />

Fig. 6.1-8 in which <strong>the</strong> power costs of a fast breeder and of an LEU-LWR are plotted as a<br />

function of U308 price.<br />

increasing fuel expense caused by <strong>the</strong> U308 price. The declining fast reactor power cost<br />

reflects <strong>the</strong> increasing value of (and hence larger credit for) <strong>the</strong> bred material when<br />

compared to U308-derived fissile material.<br />

Rapid consump-<br />

This type of phenomenon is illustrated schematically by<br />

The rising power cost of <strong>the</strong> LWR is directly attributable to <strong>the</strong><br />

The situation is still complicated even if one considers only <strong>the</strong> conceptually<br />

simple case of <strong>the</strong> throwaway cycle. From Fig. 6.1-9, where for simplicity <strong>the</strong> price of<br />

U308 was assumed to be constant over <strong>the</strong> life of <strong>the</strong> plant, it appears that <strong>the</strong> LWR is<br />

<strong>the</strong> least expensive reactor when <strong>the</strong> U308 price is fess than $60/lb, and that <strong>the</strong> HWR<br />

will be less expensive than <strong>the</strong> LWR when <strong>the</strong> U308 price is greater than $160/lb. However,<br />

an examination of <strong>the</strong> uncertainties leads one again to <strong>the</strong> conclusion that <strong>the</strong>y dominate<br />

<strong>the</strong> problem, and that conclusions based on economic arguments are tenuous at best. Thus,<br />

<strong>the</strong> decision was made to construct or not construct a nuclear unit on <strong>the</strong> basis of its<br />

ability to extend <strong>the</strong> U308 supply ra<strong>the</strong>r than on its relative cost.

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