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Appendix D. CALCULATIONS OF NUCLEAR AND FOSSIL PLANT COMPETITION
BASED ON ECONOMICS
M. R. Shay, D. R. Haffner, W. E. Black, T. M. Helm,
W. G. Jolly, R. W. Hardie, and R. P. Omberg
Hanford Engineering Development Laboratory
In a series of calculations that preceded those reported in Chapter 6 for nuclear
power systems, the same analytical model was used to evaluate power systems that include
both nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants, with the two types of plants being
in economic competition. As was stated in Chapter 6, the results of these calculations
indicated that at U3O8 prices above $160/lb, nuclear power plants do not compete well for
the assumptions used in this study. Therefore, for the all-nuclear systems it was decided
to limit the uranium resources to those available at prices below $160/lb.
This appendix describes the initial set of calculations. The nuclear plants used
were LWRs, with and without recycle, and they correspond to Cases lL, 2L,. . . .8L in Chap-
ter 6. The primary differences between the calculations presented in Chapter 6 (and in
Appendix C) and the calculations described here are as follows:
(1) Instead of a nuclear energy growth projection, a total electrica
projection was used.
energy growth
(2) In addition to nuclear plants, coal plants were available to satisfy the total
electrical energy demand.
(3) No price constraint on ore existed. Instead it was assumed that additional
uranium ore was always available at increasingly higher costs. As with the all-nuclear
systems, two different U308 price structures were used.
Table D-1.
(4) Power plant selection was based on economics instead of U308 utilization.
The electrical energy demand that was used for these calculations is shown in
This projected demand assumes a 5.6% per year growth rate until 1980, and a
5.1% per year growth rate from 1980 to 1990.
The growth rate decreases each decade until
year 2030, after which a constant 2.5% per year growth rate is assumed.
The marginal cost of uranium as a function of the cumulative quantity mined was
shown in Table B-7 of Appendix B.
In this appendix cases that use the high-cost uranium
supply are denoted as cases lL, 2L, ..., while cases that use the intermediate-cost uranium
supply are denoted as cases lLU, 2LU, .... As has already been emphasized, it was assumed
for these calculations that the quantity of available uranium was unlimited. The only