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C-6
Since 6 million ST of U308 below $160/lb is adequate, or nearly adequate, to satisfy
the projected nuclear energy demand for most cases in the various nuclear options, the
power growth patterns for these cases-are strongly influenced by economics as-well as
resource utilization.
Thus, as mentioned earlier in this appendix, the results for the
cases based on the intermediate-cost U308 supply are subject to much larger errors because
of large cost uncertainties. Table C-3 shows that the advanced converters for the throw-
away cycle reflect a larger U308 savings when 6 million ST is used as a base rather than
3 million ST. This is because many more nuclear plants are built with the larger supply
and therefore more advanced converters can be built, resulting in a larger impact.
the high-cost U308 case, most of the economic U308 was already committed to the LWR before
the advanced converters could have an effect.
For Option 2, the results are about the same for both U308 supplies except for the
case with HTGRs (Case 26).
Ore requirements per GWe are 27% higher for this case with the
intermediate-cost U308 assumed to be available. This is because 6 million ST of economic
U308 i s an adequate amount of ore for the system of reactors in Case 26 to satisfy the
nuclear energy demand and economic considerations are also affecting the mix of reactors
that are built. Thus, the fraction of low-enriched LWRs constructed is larger because
this reactor is less expensive than the HTGRs, even though the HTGRs use less uranium.
The plant selection for the cases that include FBRs (Options 3, 6, 7, and 8) is also
determined by economics when 6 million ST of U308 below $160/lb is assumed to be available.
Therefore, the uranium utilization for these cases has less meaning. Similarly, some of
the advanced converter options for the denatured cases (Options 4, 5U, and 5T) are resource
limited and some are not, so it is difficult to draw conclusions regarding relative uranium
and enrichment uti1 ization.
To summarize, there are two important and competing effects when comparing the cases
for the two uranium supplies:
with the high-cost U308 supply, the larger supply allows the advanced converters to have a
greater impact and therefore better ore utilization; and (2) systems that have almost
enough ore with the high-cost U308 supply have plenty of ore with the intermediate-cost
supply, and therefore plant selection with the larger supply is based on cost and ore
utilization is lower.
For
(1) For systems that fall far short of meeting the demand
The maximum annual U308 requirements and the maximum annual enrichment requirements
through the year 2050 are shown in Table C-4, The number in parentheses next to each maximum
indicates the year the maximum occurs. As was mentioned above, it has been estimated that
the maximum domestic mining and milling rate may be approximately 60,000 ST/yr. Table C-4
indicates that if the high-cost U308 supply is assumed, the annual U308 requirements vary
from 50,000 ST/yr (Case 7s) to 80,000 ST/yr (Case 4L). For most of the cases, the maximum
occurs during the first decade of tile next century. Thus, most of the cases require annual
ore usage within the next 25 - 30 years that exceeds the 60,00O/yr criterion.
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