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c-2
In all cases the reactors operating on plutonium or on highly enriched uranium were
assumed to be restricted to secure energy centers, while those operating on low-enriched,
slightly enriched, natural, or denatured uranium were permitted to operate outside the
centers. The specific reactors used for each case, and their locations, are given in
Table 6.1-5 of Chapter 6.
All cases were run assuming 350 GWe of installed nuclear capacity in the year 2000
and a net increase in installed capacity of 15 GWe per year thereafter. Each new plant was
assumed to have a 30-yr lifetime. For Option 1, some additional cases were run for a lower
energy demand -- 200 GWe in the year 2000 and a net increase of 10 GWe per year thereafter.
These latter,cases are-identified with a C following the case number (i.e., cases lLEC, lLC,
etc.).
In the results presented here, particular emphasis is given to uranium utilization,
separative work utilization, and energy-support ratios. Two important criteria are to be
considered when analyzing uranium utilization of reactor systems.
of the system to meet the specified nuclear energy demand with the available U308 supply.
For these calculations two different supplies were assumed:
$160/1 b U308, corresponding to a high-cost and an intermediate-cost supply, respectively.
(As shown in Appendix D, nuclear power plants do not compete well at higher U308 costs.)
The second criterion is the capability of the uranium industry to discover, mine and mill the
ore at a rate adequate to satisfy the demand for uranium.
maximum production rate is difficult to postulate because of the possibility of importing
U3Oi and because of the difficulties that might be encountered in developing uncertain
resources. As pointed out in Section 7.4.4 of Chapter 7, the DOE Uranium and Enrichment
Division has estimated that by developing known and potential reserves domestic mining and
milling could sustain 60,000 ST of U30s per year.
The first is the ability
3 million and 6 million ST below
The specification of the overall
When analyzing enrichment utilization, the same two criteria - total amount and enrich-
ment capacity - were also used, the more meaningful being the capacity since enrichment is
not a limited natural resource like uranium.
For the cases in which 3 million ST of uranium below $160/lb U308 was assumed, the
lack of low-cost U308 dominates the plant selection because the amount of ore available is
inadequate for meeting the projected nuclear energy demand. As a result, resource-efficient
reactors are constructed regardless of their cost. With a U308 supply below $160/lb as
large as 6 million ST, however, most systems are no longer dominated by the lack of U308,
and the relative total power costs of the individual reactors play a more important role.
In fact, if the system is not limited in any way by the supply of U308, then the solution is
determined solely by economics. The results in this case become more tenuous because of the
uncertainty in capital costs, fabrication costs, reprocessing costs, etc.
The cumulative nuclear capacities that could be constructed through the year 2050
for the various cases are shown in Table C-2. Only those cases totaling 1959 GWe will have
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