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C-6 Since 6 million ST of U308 below $160/lb is adequate, or nearly adequate, to satisfy the projected nuclear energy demand for most cases in the various nuclear options, the power growth patterns for these cases-are strongly influenced by economics as-well as resource utilization. Thus, as mentioned earlier in this appendix, the results for the cases based on the intermediate-cost U308 supply are subject to much larger errors because of large cost uncertainties. Table C-3 shows that the advanced converters for the throw- away cycle reflect a larger U308 savings when 6 million ST is used as a base rather than 3 million ST. This is because many more nuclear plants are built with the larger supply and therefore more advanced converters can be built, resulting in a larger impact. the high-cost U308 case, most of the economic U308 was already committed to the LWR before the advanced converters could have an effect. For Option 2, the results are about the same for both U308 supplies except for the case with HTGRs (Case 26). Ore requirements per GWe are 27% higher for this case with the intermediate-cost U308 assumed to be available. This is because 6 million ST of economic U308 i s an adequate amount of ore for the system of reactors in Case 26 to satisfy the nuclear energy demand and economic considerations are also affecting the mix of reactors that are built. Thus, the fraction of low-enriched LWRs constructed is larger because this reactor is less expensive than the HTGRs, even though the HTGRs use less uranium. The plant selection for the cases that include FBRs (Options 3, 6, 7, and 8) is also determined by economics when 6 million ST of U308 below $160/lb is assumed to be available. Therefore, the uranium utilization for these cases has less meaning. Similarly, some of the advanced converter options for the denatured cases (Options 4, 5U, and 5T) are resource limited and some are not, so it is difficult to draw conclusions regarding relative uranium and enrichment uti1 ization. To summarize, there are two important and competing effects when comparing the cases for the two uranium supplies: with the high-cost U308 supply, the larger supply allows the advanced converters to have a greater impact and therefore better ore utilization; and (2) systems that have almost enough ore with the high-cost U308 supply have plenty of ore with the intermediate-cost supply, and therefore plant selection with the larger supply is based on cost and ore utilization is lower. For (1) For systems that fall far short of meeting the demand The maximum annual U308 requirements and the maximum annual enrichment requirements through the year 2050 are shown in Table C-4, The number in parentheses next to each maximum indicates the year the maximum occurs. As was mentioned above, it has been estimated that the maximum domestic mining and milling rate may be approximately 60,000 ST/yr. Table C-4 indicates that if the high-cost U308 supply is assumed, the annual U308 requirements vary from 50,000 ST/yr (Case 7s) to 80,000 ST/yr (Case 4L). For most of the cases, the maximum occurs during the first decade of tile next century. Thus, most of the cases require annual ore usage within the next 25 - 30 years that exceeds the 60,00O/yr criterion. i: L L L1 c L L I] L
i ' ibd 1 b i L L i L I Li . . b b c-7 Table C-4. Maximum Annual U308 and Enrichment Requirements Through Year 2050 for Various Nuclear Policy Options Advanced Converter U308 Requirements (thousands tons/yr)/Enrichment Requirements (million swv/yr) option 1E* 1 2 3 4 5u 5T 6 7 8 .High-Cost U308 Supply LWR's 73(2007) 72(2007) 67(2009) 60(2009) 80(2005) 75(2009) 65(2011) 62(2009) 60(2009) 68(2005) (L) 44(2007) 45(2007) 46(2009) 41 (2009) 69(20091 SS(2011) 45(2011) 44120091 42(2009) 55(2005) SSCR's - 72(2007) 62(2011) SZ(2009) 79(2009) 69(2011) 58(2017) 50(2005) SO(2005) SS(2009) 6) - 42(2007) 4012011) 3412009) 68(2009) 60(2011) 39(2010) 35120051 35(2005) 3812009) HWR's - 68(2009) 58(2011) 66(2009) 71(2009) SS(2003) 53(2019) 64(2009) 63(2009) 65(2009) (HI - 36(20051 36120031 46(20091 58(2011) 4612023) 35(2003) 4612009) 4412009) 4612009) HTGR' s - 72(2007) 57(2019) 53(2003) 65(2009) 57(2011) 64(2011) 61(2009) 60(2009) 65(2009) (GI - 45120091 51(20191 39(2005) 5212011) 4912017) 45(20111 44(20091 42120091 46(20091 Intermediate-Cost U308 Supply LWR's 124(2025) 120(2025) llO(2039) 92(2037) lOS(2037) llS(2039) 109(2039) 86(2033) 86(2033) 92(2043) (L) 7412025) 7712025) 72(2039) 60(20371 lOO(20371 9012039) 77(2039) 61 (2033) 61 (2033) 6512043) SSCR's - 114(2027) 96(2043) 93(2047) 82(2049) 83(2049) 83(2049) 83(2049) 83(2049) 83(2049) (S) 6312029) 57(2045) 5312047) 7312039) 5512049) 55(20491 5512049) 55120491 5512049) HWR's 98(2031) 81(2023) 66(2009) 117(2031) 89(2029) 90(2029) 66(2009) 66(2009) 66(2009) (HI 42(2009) 5312011) 47(20091 960033) 64(20291 64120311 47(2009) 47(20091 4612009) HTGR's - llO(2029) 86(2049) 86(2049) 96(2039) 94(2043) 108(2041) 87(2047) 87(2047) 87(2047) (GI 84(2029) 70(2049) 7012049) 90120391 86(20471 76(2041) 7412047) 74l.20471 7512047) *System with standard LWR only. The maximum annual separative work requirements based on the high-cost U308 supply varies from 34 million SWU/yr to 69 million SWU/yr. tions capacity would have to be doubled or quadrupled to meet the demand. As expected, the year in which the maximum separative work capacity occurs is nearly the same as the year when the U308 demand is greatest. This means that the current separa- Assuming the intermediate-cost U308 supply, the maximum annual ore requirements are greater than 60,000 ST for all cases. For most of the options, the year the maximum occurs is 40 yr later than for the high-cost cases. This is because, with 6 million ST of economic U308, the nuclear industry continues to expand. The breeder reactor systems that include HWRs (Cases 3H, 6H, 7H, and 8H) are the only cases that have ore requirements that are close to being as low as 60,000 ST/yr. The maximum separative work requirements are also very high for this uranium supply -- from 42 to 100 million SWU/yr. Table C-5 shows the energy support ratios calculated in this study for the year 2025, the energy support ratio being the ratio of installed nuclear capacity outside the energy centers to the installed nuclear capacity inside the centers. All the reactor types that are available in Options 1 and 4 could be constructed outside the centers; therefore, the energy support ratio for each case in these options is a. However, it has already been shown that these systems offer the lowest uranium utilization and therefore the lowest nuclear growth potential, even if it is assumed that 6 million ST of U308 i s available at below $160/lb.
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Interim Assessment of the Denatured
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i L i b I, i L L bi L L Contract No
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1, L L t i Ltr 1 L L V PREFACE AND
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L i Li 1, I b k b id ii t L id b i
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I L bi i; L 7.3.1. Possible Procedu
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i xi I b L ABSTRACT A fuel cycle th
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I b .- i, hd t t CHAPTER 1 INTRODUC
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L - i' u i Lt L r- L t- b L 2-7 den
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2-9 1. Nuclear power is limited to
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e Isr i L i- b t CHAPTER 3 ISOTOPIC
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232" Fig. 3.0-1. Decay of 232U. ORN
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3-6 3.1. ESTIMATED U CONCENTRATIONS
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3-8 The values in Table 3.1-2 are a
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3-1 0 3.2. RADIOLOGICAL HAZARDS OF
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3-1 2 232u IN RECYCLED HTGR FUEL (p
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3-14 3.2.2 Toxicity of 232Th Given
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
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3.18 There are three approaches whi
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1 i i 3-20 3.3.2. Fabrication and H
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The 3-22 3.3.3 Detection and Assay
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3-24 3.3.4. Potential Circumvention
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3-26 - either large centrifuge pilo
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! 3-28 Table 3.3-3. Enriched Proauc
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3-30 The high alpha activity of ura
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3- 32 Table 3.3-7. Sumry of Results
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3-34 statistical redundancy through
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introduce time, cost and visibility
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3-38 An additional factor relative
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I b t I t L 1; L t ki 4.0. 4.1. CHA
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Y m I I I . aro ID0 10.00 4-5 ORNL-
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_- I -- L i d .-- L 4-1 1 Reference
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u -- x i I*i 1- bi 4-1 7 The use of
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la - i , I br -_ t c c L e L 4-1 9
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4-21 Case B" is a modification of C
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c 4-23 L i a L L 4.2. SPECTRAL-SHIF
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4-25 Initial analyses of spectral-s
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h 1' b t c i--; & I- & 1: i f 4-27
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c- i L L e I b 4-29 . safeguards fo
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L t i- bi L L t i 4-31 a significan
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~ kc'l c" -1 r-"! r! r-'i c Table 4
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F-- I iJ L ii - L c c 4-35 Referenc
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c r- L i] L h L __ f; t 4-37 trons
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Table 4.4-1. Fuel Utilization Chara
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4-43 Table 4.4-4. PBR Coated Partic
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HEU/Th 0.59 Seed i3 Breed 0.58 HEU/
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L i; 1 I i; i 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
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ments. 4-51 The calculations for LM
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1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 4-53 0 77-1
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Table 4.6-1. Comparison of Fuel Uti
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4-57 _I 10 10' 2 2' CASE NUMBER -.
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4-59 Most of the information availa
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4-63 on only the preliminary data p
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c e E c
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! 5-4 5.1. REACTOR RESEARCH AND DEV
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5-6 As has been pointed out above,
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5-8 the LMFBR on its reference cycl
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5-10 The fuel performance program u
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. 5.1.2. Government Research and De
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5-1 4 The first aspect of large pla
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5-1 6 and should also address metho
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I DATA BASE DEMu)pMENT DEMO DESIGN
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j ~ 5-20 The R,D&D costs are highes
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5-22 In the case of metal-clad oxid
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5-24 5.2.2. Research, Development,
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5-26 program, including hot testing
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c c
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6-4 persed areas ensured - a fact w
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6-6 6.1.2. Reactor Options The reac
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Reactor/Cycl ea LWR-U5(LE)/U-S LUR-
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6-10 6.1.3. Nuclear Policy Options,
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Table 6.1-4. Nuclear Policy Options
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SWU SWU 6-14 UZJS USILEINS WYI U5IL
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6-16 n nM MEDL nows.1 Option 4: In
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6-18 HM HEDL7OOl.70.3 Option 6: In
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SRCIFIED CONSTRUCTION LlMllLD INTRO
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50- 40 6-22 c Y \ VL - :-: F 30- -
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6-24 The potential nuclear contribu
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%- f $400 J 2 s 2, 1 THE LWR FOLLOW
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141.6 ST - U308 4 7.2 lo3 swu ENRIC
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6-30 reactor. Since this increase i
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‘9. ,1 ST ‘3O8 6-32 12 Kg HM I
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6-34 1HE LWR WITH FISSILE UUNIUM PC
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THE LWR WITH PURONIUM MlNUllUTlON A
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6-38 be located in energy centers a
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lm, 1 I I I I mf RR WITH UGHT rwrmi
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25.2 ST swu 6-46 19 Kg fir Pu 13 Kg
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6-48 Table 6.3-2. Summary of Result
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6-50 (4) If all plutonium produced
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L 1 L u without benefit of U.S. exp
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7-9 Viewed solely from the plutoniu
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U L L L L ld 1 i" * required 233U m
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I I, i 7-1 7 ii I 1 I L L k L i Thr
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li i i L Li L & I ' i kr ii L i h i
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7-21 7.3. PROSPECTS FOR IMPLEMENTAT
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7-25 7.3.2. Considerations in Comme
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.. I b k; L; i b b 1J I L 7-27 cycl
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7-29 7.4. ADEQUACY OF NUCLEAR POWER
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