ORNL-5388 - the Molten Salt Energy Technologies Web Site

D-2
-~
. Table D-1. Projected Total
Electrical Generation
restriction on uranium consumption was
based on economics - that is, the
marginal cost of an additional pound
Electrical
Electrical
Energy Growth
of U308 increases as more uranium is
consumed.
Year
Energy
( lo1* kWh)
Rate
(% per year)
Fossil-fueled power plants were represented
by nine different coal plant
1975
1.9)
5.6 types which are indicative of different
1980
2.5i
5.1 coal regions. The principal differences
1990
4.1,
4.1 between coal plant types are the coal price,
2000 , 6.1; 3.5 the coal energy content, and the size of
2010
3.0 the demand that can be satisfied by each
2020
2030 llS6I
14.9
2.5 coal plant type. The maximum fraction of
the total electrical energy demand that can
be satisfied by each regional coal plant
type is shown in Table 0-2.
also gives the heat content of the coal for each region.
This table
The capital cost associated with building a coal plant was assumed to be 12% lower
than the capital cost of a LWR, or $550/kWe (in 1/1/77 dollars). Therefore, for nuclear
plants to be built instead of coal plants, the fuel costs of the nuclear plants must be
enough lower than the fuel cost of fossil plants to override this capital cost differential.
If nuclear plants are less expensive than coal plants for all regions, then all of the new
plants built will be nuclear. Figure D-1 shows how the nuclear market fraction decreases
as nuclear plants become more expensive. If nuclear plants increase in price by 20% over
the price where all of the market would be nuclear, the nuclear market fraction decreases
to 0.75. An increase of about 35% in the price of a nuclear unit reduces the nuclear
market fraction to about 0.34, while a 57% increase results in all of the new plants built
being fossil-fueled plants.
Nuclear power growth projections for the LWR on the throwaway cycle are shown for
both uranium supplies in.Fig. D-2a. For the high-cost uranium supply case, nuclear power
peaks at 500 GWe of installed capacity around the year 2005 and then phases out to about
100 GWe in 2040. On the other hand, if the intermediate-cost uranium supply is assumed,
nuclear power continues to grow until about 2015 to almost 900 GWe, and then decreases to
about 300 GWe in 2040. As a result, nuclear is more competitive with coal and captures a
larger share of the market.
Figure D-2b shows that recycling plutonium in LWRs (Case 2L) increases the nuclear
power market even more than the assumption of a larger uranium supply, and introducing
the Pu/U-fueled FBR with recycle (Case 3L) further increases the nuclear market to 1300
GWe of installed nuclear capacity in the year 2040. The u& utilization, defined as the
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