ORNL-5388 - the Molten Salt Energy Technologies Web Site

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6.1.4. The Analytical Method
The principal components of the analytical method used in this study are illustrated
in Fig. 6.1-5 and are based on the following assumptions:
(1) Given a specified demand for nuclear energy as a function of time, nuclear units
are constructed to meet this demand consistent with the nuclear policy option under
cons idera ti on.
(2) As nuclear units requiring U308 are constructed, the supply of U3O8 is continuously
depleted. The depletion rate is based on both the first core load and the annual reloads
required throughout the life of the nuclear unit. The long-run marginal cost of U308 is
assumed to be an increasing function of the cumulative amount mined.
a continuous transition from higher grade to lower grade resources.
This is indicative of
(3) If the nuclear policy option under consideration assumes reprocessing, the fuel
is stored after discharge until reprocessing is available. After reprocessing, the fissile
plutonium and 233U are available for refabrication and reloading.
(4) A nuclear unit which requires 239Pu or 233U cannot be constructed unless the
supply of fissile material is sufficient to provide the first core load plus the reloads
on an annual basis throughout the unit's life.
(5) The number of nuclear units specified for operation through the 1980's is
exogenously consistent with the current construction plans of uti1 ities.
(6) A nuclear plant design which differs from established technology can be intro-
duced only at a limited maximum rate. A typical maximum introduction rate is one plant
during the first biennium, two plants during the second biennium, four during the third,
eight during the fourth, etc.
(7) If the manufacturing capability to produce a particular reactor type is well
established, the rate at which this reactor type will lose its share of the new construction
market is limited to a specified fraction per year. A typical maximum construction market
loss rate is lO%/yr. This reflects the fact that some utilities will continue to purchase
plants of an established and reliable technology, even though a new technology may offer
an improvement.
The acquisition of fissile material will be the principal goal of any nation embarked
upon a nuclear weapons program. Therefore, any analysis of a diversion-resistant civilian
nuclear power strategy must include a detailed analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. The
steps in the nuclear fuel cycle which were explicitly modeled in this analysis are shown
in Fig. 6.1-6. They include: the mining of U308; the conversion of U308 to UF,; the
enrichment of the uranium by either the gaseous diffusion technique or the centrifuge