Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment - Asia-Pacific Gateway for Disaster ...

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Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Relationship between Disaster Management Cycle and Hazard & Risk Mapping (After (BGR and GAI, 2009)) ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 1.2. Assessment Methodology ........................................................................................................ 18 Figure 2.1. Trend line showing annual occurrence of various disasters in Nepal (Based on Disaster Catalog developed by Ministry of Home Affairs, GON) ........................................................................... 21 Figure 2.2. Geo-development Zones of Nepal(Source: (DOS, 2001)) ...................................................... 23 Figure 2.3. National Map showing VDCs in each district (source for VDC boundary: (DOS, 2001)) ..... 23 Figure 2.4. Major sectors landcover distribution. (Source: (DOS, 2001)). ................................................ 24 Figure 2.5. House types and distribution (source: (CBS, 2001); (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)). ............... 25 Figure 2.6. Map showing number of health institutions in districts (Source:(ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) .................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.7. Map showing Number of health institutions and population per institution (Source:(ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 2.8. Number of school (source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) ....................................................... 27 Figure 2.9. School type distribution (source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) .............................................. 28 Figure 2.10. Fishery in Nepal ..................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 2.11. Map showing distribution of DoI and FMIS surface irrigation system (source: (CERD, 2007)) ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 Figure 2.12. Distribution of ground water irrigation system in the country (source: (CERD, 2007)) ....... 29 Figure 2.13. Districution of non-converntional irrigation system in the country (source: (CERD, 2007)) .................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 2.14. Distribution of irrigation area in the country (source: (CERD, 2007)) ................................. 30 Figure 2.15. Distribution of Agriculture land in Nepal .............................................................................. 31 Figure 2.16. Agriculture Production (source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) ............................................ 31 Figure 2.17. Road length in country (source: (DOS, 2001)) ...................................................................... 32 Figure 2.18. Road Density (source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003a)) ............................................................. 32 Figure 2.19. Industries and economic profile(Source: (DOI, 2008)). ........................................................ 33 Figure 2.20. Major power stations transmission lines and substations(source: (NEA, 2009) ) ................. 34 Figure 2.21. Map of Nepal showing small hydro power station, Isolated solar and diesel power station (source: (NEA, 2009) ) ............................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 2.22. Graph showing number of power stations and electric power production by various classes of stations(source: (NEA, 2009) ) .............................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2.23. Tourist major region and purpose of visits (Source: (MTCA, 2008) ) .................................. 35 Figure 2.24. Most visited placed in Nepal (Source: (MTCA, 2008) ) ....................................................... 35 Figure 2.25. Total Revenue in 2007-08 due to Tourism (Source: (MTCA, 2008) ) .................................. 35 Figure 2.26. Most popular entry point for tourists (Source: (MTCA, 2008) ) ........................................... 35 Figure 2.27. Average total price of minerals (Source: (DMG, 2009)) ....................................................... 36 Figure 2.28. Map show bank density per 1000 population (Source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003a)) ........... 36 Figure 2.29. Map shows cooperatives density per 1000 population (Source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003a)) .................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 2.30. Elevation and slope pixel count. ............................................................................................ 38 Figure 2.31. Elevation and slope distribution (source: (USGS, 2003); (METI, 2006)) ............................. 38 Figure 2.32. Population distribution. (Source: (CBS, 2001), (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) ...................... 39 Figure 3.1. Methodology for earthquake hazard mapping. ...................................................................... 41 Figure 3.2. Visualization guideline. ........................................................................................................... 42 Figure 3.3. Hazard vs total area cross plot for 500 year return period. ..................................................... 42 Figure 3.4. Hazard vs total area cross plot for 250 year return period. ..................................................... 43 Figure 3.5. Hazard vs total area cross plot for 100 year return period. ..................................................... 43 Figure 3.6. Hazard vs total area cross plot for 50 year return period. ....................................................... 44 Figure 3.7. Map of earthquake hazard zone for 500 yr return period. ....................................................... 46 Figure 3.8. Map of earthquake hazard zone for 250 yr return period. ....................................................... 47 Figure 3.9. Map of earthquake hazard zone for 100 yr return period. ....................................................... 48 Figure 3.10. Map of earthquake hazard zone for 50 yr return period. ....................................................... 49 Figure 3.11. Schematic approach for landslide hazard and risk evaluation. ............................................. 50 Figure 3.12. Hazard vs total area cross plot for earthquake triggered landslide. ...................................... 51 Figure 3.13. Hazard vs total area cross plot for precipitation triggered landslide. .................................... 52 Figure 3.14. Earthquake induced landslide hazard map of Nepal ............................................................. 53 Figure 3.15. Precipitation induced landslide hazard map of Nepal ........................................................... 54 Figure 3.16.Flowchart showing the methodology for flood hazard assessment ....................................... 56 Figure 3.17. Flood inundation causes by all identified rivers for 10 years return period .......................... 57 Figure 3.18.Flood inundation causes by all identified rivers for 25 years return period ........................... 57 Figure 3.19.Flood inundation causes by all identified rivers for 50 years return period ........................... 57 Figure 3.20.Flood inundation causes by all identified rivers for 100 years return period ......................... 57 Figure 3.21.Flood inundation causes by all identified rivers for 500 years return period ......................... 58 Figure 3.22.Percentage of flood hazard area with respect to district area at 10 years return period ........ 58 Figure 3.23.Percentage of flood hazard area with respect to district area at 25 years return period ......... 58 Figure 3.24.Percentage of flood hazard area with respect to district area at 50 years return period ......... 58 Figure 3.25.Percentage of flood hazard area with respect to district area at 100 years return period ....... 59 Figure 3.26.Percentage of flood hazard area with respect to district area at 500 years return period ....... 59 Figure 3.27.Rapti flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 60 Figure 3.28.Tinau flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 3.29.Babai flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 62 Figure 3.30.Bagmati flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 63 Figure 3.31.Kamala flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 64 Figure 3.32.Kankai flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 65 Figure 3.33.Narayani flood inundation mapping for 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years and 500 years return periods ............................................................................................................................................. 66 Figure 3.34. Flow chart of drought index computation and its impact in different sectors. ................... 67 Figure 3.35.Moderate drought susceptibility maps for (a) Winter (b) Premonsoon (c) Monsoon and (d) Postmonsoon seasons. ............................................................................................................................... 69 Figure 3.36.Severe drought susceptibility maps for (a) Winter (b) Premonsoon (c) Monsoon and (d) .... 70 Figure 3.37.Extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) Winter (b) Premonsoon (c) Monsoon and (d) Postmonsoon seasons ................................................................................................................................ 71 iv
Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment Figure 3.38.Moderate to extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) winter (b) premonsoon (c) monsoon and d) postmonsoon ................................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 3.39. Drought occurrence in winter ................................................................................................ 73 Figure 3.40. Drought occurrence in premonsoon ...................................................................................... 74 Figure 3.41. Drought occurrence in monsoon ............................................................................................ 74 Figure 3.42. Drought occurrence in postmonsoon ..................................................................................... 74 Figure 3.43. Percentage of coverage of drought area with respect to district area .................................... 74 Figure 3.44 Methodology of disease / outbreak susceptibility mapping ................................................... 78 Figure 3.45.Trend analysis of Diseases and outbreak ................................................................................ 78 Figure 3.46. Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for TB and STI .................................................. 80 Figure 3.47. Maps showing disease suscetibility maps for Diarrhea and ARI .......................................... 81 Figure 3.48.Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Fliariasisi and Kalazar ................................. 82 Figure 3.49. Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Leprocy and Malaria ................................... 83 Figure 3.50. Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Typhoid and Hepatitis ................................ 84 Figure 3.51. Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Gastroenteritis and Influenza ARI .............. 85 Figure 3.52 Multi hazard assessment scenario 1 ........................................................................................ 88 Figure 3.53 Multi hazard assessment scenario 2 ........................................................................................ 89 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1. Profile of impact of various hazards in Nepal (Source: (CRED, 2009)) .................................. 20 Table 2.2. Source of information. .............................................................................................................. 22 Table 2.3. Housing type percentage at country level (CBS, 2001) . ......................................................... 25 Table 2.4. Number of School per thousand people of Nepal (source: (ICIMOD and CBS, 2003b)) ........ 27 Table 3.1. Earthquake hazard zone scale ................................................................................................... 42 Table 3.2. Districts area percentage distribution of Earthquake hazard assessment for 500 yr return period. ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 Table 3.3. Districts area percentage distribution of Earthquake hazard assessment for 250 yr return period. ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 Table 3.4. Districts area percentage distribution of Earthquake hazard assessment for 100 yr return period. ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 Table 3.5. Districts area percentage distribution of Earthquake hazard assessment for 50 yr return period. ................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Table 3.6. Districts area percentage distribution of earthquake induced landslide. .................................. 52 Table 3.7. Districts area percentage distribution of precipitation induced landslide. ............................... 52 Table 3.8. Drought susceptibility. ............................................................................................................. 73 Table 3.9. Seasonal Drought occurrence in different years ....................................................................... 73 Table 3.10 Districts prone to multiple hazards under scenario one ........................................................... 86 Table 3.11 Districts prone to multiple hazards under scenario two .......................................................... 87 v
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