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Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment 1.2.7 CATEGORISATION OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD The obtained landslide hazard indices were calibrated against the databases of landslide events in selected (mostly European) countries to obtain the frequency of the events. On the basis of this calibration, the landslide hazard classifications listed in the following table were established. Values for Hlandslide, rainfall Values for Hlandslide, earthquake Class Classification of landslide hazard potential Representative annual frequency in 1 km 2 grid cell ≤ 32 ≤ 55 0 Negligible ~ 0 33 – 81 56 – 146 1 Low 0.01 – 0.2 % 82 – 134 147 – 164 2 Medium 0.3 – 2 % 134 – 288 165 – 591 3 High 3 – 10 % Figure 1.8. Map of precipitation-induced landslide hazard in Nepal. 1.3 USING THE LANDSLIDE HAZARD RESULTS IN RISK ESTIMATION The intersection of the landslide hazard "hotspots" with population density (see Figure 1.9) and infrastructure density maps, and appropriate set of socio-economic indicators (GDP, Human Development Index, etc.) provides a first-pass estimate of landslide risk "hotspots". Figure 1.7. Map of earthquake-induced landslide hazard in Nepal. Since landslides are highly correlated with other natural disasters, one may overestimate the total risk from all natural hazards if one simply adds the individual risks. This is particularly significant for earthquake-induced landslides, where the fatalities due to the earthquake event reported in various databases are inclusive of those caused by landslides. In the analyses presented in this note, the landslide hazard due to earthquakes and rainfall are differentiated. This should make it possible to correct for some of the correlations among the risks associated with different natural hazards when the total risk is estimated. 98
Nepal Hazard Risk Assessment http://gpcc.dwd.de Seismic trigger factor: Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP), Geo Forschungs Zentrum, Potsdam, Germany http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/index.html Population data: Gridded Population of the World (GPWv3), Columbia University, New York, USA http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/ International disaster database: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium http://www.em-dat.net/ Land cover database: Erupean Space Agency http://www.esa.int/esaEO/SEMGSY2IU7E_index_0.html Figure 1.9. Map of population density in Nepal. 1.4 REFERENCES CPC, Moisture index data. Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Maryland, USA. Dilley, M., Chen, R.S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A.L., Arnold, M., 2005. Natural Disaster Hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis. Report International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. World Bank and Columbia University. DMG, 1987. Geological Map of Nepal, 1:250,000 scale (5 sheets). Department of Mines and Geology (DMG), Kathmandu, Nepal. Nadim, F., Kjekstad, O., Peduzzi, P., Herold, C., Jaedicke, C., 2006. Global landslide and avalanche hotspots. Landslides 3, 159 - 174. Pandey, M.R., Chitrakar, G.R., Kafle, B., Sapkota, S.N., Rajaure, S., Gautam, U.P., 2002. Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal. Department of Mines and Geology, Kathmandu. (Internet) data sources: Elevation data (SRTM): Isciences, Michigan, USA http://www.isciences.com/index.html Moisture index data: Climate Prediction Center, Maryland, USA http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.GMSM/.w/ Precipitation data: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany 99
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