"Life Cycle" Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate ... - Arabictrader.com

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Table 6.1 Chinese Household Income and Saving, 1953–2000 Household Household Household Household CPI, CPI, Preceeding Real Per capita Year Consumption Saving Income Saving Ratio 1950 = 100 Year = 100 Income Real Income E/M 1953 529.20 41.50 570.70 0.0726 121.4 105.1 470.1 79.95 1.0015 1954 550.00 31.80 581.80 0.0546 123.1 101.4 472.6 78.42 0.9876 1955 602.00 30.10 632.10 0.0476 123.5 100.3 511.8 83.27 0.9796 1956 646.80 51.00 697.80 0.0731 123.4 99.9 565.5 90.01 0.9774 1957 686.60 31.80 718.40 0.0442 126.6 102.6 567.4 87.76 0.9705 1958 724.00 63.00 787.00 0.0801 125.2 98.9 628.6 95.26 1.0528 1959 691.20 48.20 739.40 0.0652 125.6 100.3 588.7 87.60 1.0067 1960 741.70 45.80 787.50 0.0581 128.8 102.5 611.4 92.34 1.0001 1961 816.70 45.90 862.60 0.0532 149.6 116.1 576.6 87.55 0.9840 1962 838.70 -5.30 833.40 -0.0063 155.3 103.8 536.7 79.75 0.9432 1963 844.20 17.20 861.40 0.0199 146.1 94.1 589.6 85.23 0.9341 1964 889.60 29.10 918.70 0.0317 140.7 96.3 652.9 92.62 0.9669 1965 951.50 50.70 1002.20 0.0506 139.0 98.8 721.0 99.40 0.9740 1966 1021.10 54.90 1076.00 0.0510 137.3 98.8 783.7 105.13 0.9925 1967 1081.50 46.90 1128.40 0.0415 136.4 99.4 827.3 108.32 1.0085 1968 1076.60 49.40 1126.00 0.0439 136.5 100.1 824.9 105.04 1.0234 1969 1127.70 34.40 1162.10 0.0296 137.8 101.0 843.3 104.54 1.0394 1970 1206.90 24.90 1231.80 0.0202 137.8 100.0 893.9 107.71 1.0502 1971 1262.00 59.20 1321.20 0.0448 137.7 99.9 959.5 112.57 1.0676 1972 1334.20 66.50 1400.70 0.0475 137.9 100.2 1015.8 116.52 1.0524 1973 1432.50 68.40 1500.90 0.0456 138.0 100.1 1087.6 121.91 1.0507 1974 1467.00 64.00 1531.00 0.0418 138.9 100.7 1102.2 121.31 1.0474 1975 1528.50 57.90 1586.40 0.0365 139.5 100.4 1137.2 123.04 1.0457 1976 1588.50 70.20 1658.70 0.0423 139.9 100.3 1185.6 126.51 1.0704 The Chinese Saving Puzzle 175
Table 6.1 (continued) Household Household Household Household CPI, CPI, Preceeding Real Per capita Year Consumption Saving Income Saving Ratio 1950 = 100 Year = 100 Income Real Income E/M 1977 1647.80 53.60 1701.40 0.0315 143.7 102.7 1184.0 124.67 1.1034 1978 1759.10 87.60 1846.70 0.0475 144.7 100.7 1276.2 132.58 1.1400 1979 2005.40 213.90 2219.30 0.0964 147.4 101.9 1505.6 154.35 1.1804 1980 2317.10 316.00 2633.10 0.1200 158.5 107.5 1661.3 168.31 1.2317 1981 2604.10 401.30 3005.40 0.1335 162.5 102.5 1849.5 184.81 1.2761 1982 2867.90 449.10 3317.00 0.1354 165.8 102.0 2000.6 196.81 1.3265 1983 3182.50 671.20 3853.70 0.1742 169.1 102.0 2278.9 221.24 1.3990 1984 3674.50 1036.00 4710.50 0.2199 173.7 102.7 2711.9 259.87 1.4964 1985 4589.00 1199.40 5788.40 0.2072 194.4 109.3 2977.6 281.30 1.5773 1986 5175.00 1649.50 6824.50 0.2417 208.0 106.5 3281.0 305.19 1.6393 1987 5961.20 1811.60 7772.80 0.2331 226.3 107.3 3434.7 314.25 1.6889 1988 7633.10 2489.50 10122.60 0.2459 273.1 118.8 3706.6 333.85 1.7620 1989 8523.50 2624.40 11147.90 0.2354 317.6 118.0 3510.0 311.44 1.7722 1990 9113.20 3168.90 12282.10 0.2580 321.7 103.1 3817.9 333.93 2.0185 1991 10315.90 3835.00 14150.90 0.2710 338.1 103.4 4185.4 361.36 2.0081 1992 12459.80 4868.50 17328.30 0.2810 367.2 106.4 4719.0 402.75 2.0048 1993 15682.40 6313.40 21995.80 0.2870 421.2 114.7 5222.2 440.63 2.0000 1994 21230.00 10813.50 32043.50 0.3375 522.7 124.1 6130.4 511.50 2.0063 1995 26944.50 12027.20 38971.70 0.3086 612.1 117.7 6366.9 525.66 2.0553 1996 32152.30 13568.10 45720.40 0.2968 662.9 108.3 6897.0 563.53 2.1347 1997 34854.60 13155.60 48010.20 0.2740 681.4 102.8 7045.8 569.93 2.1885 1998 36921.10 12881.70 49802.80 0.2587 676.0 99.2 7367.3 590.28 2.2374 1999 39334.40 14571.10 53905.50 0.2703 666.5 98.6 8087.4 642.32 2.3342 2000 42911.90 13218.60 56130.50 0.2355 669.2 100.4 8387.7 662.62 2.4556 Notes: Population in 10,000 persons. Household income, saving, consumption in 100 million current RMB Yuan. Real income in 100 million constant 1950 RMB Yuan. E/M = Number of persons employed/Number of persons 14 years and younger. 176 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis
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THE COLLECTED PAPERS OF FRANCO MODI
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Franco Modigliani in 1992.
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© 2005 Massachusetts Institute of
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CONTENTS Preface Francesco Franco I
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PREFACE The essays collected in thi
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xii Introduction decades of the twe
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THE LIFE-CYCLE HYPOTHESIS I
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4 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis them. W
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6 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis which c
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8 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis extent
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10 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis Assump
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12 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis e dy d
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14 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis We wil
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16 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis The fi
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18 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis We fee
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20 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis P = y
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22 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis y y e
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24 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis consum
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26 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis as an
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28 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis It wil
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30 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis is one
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32 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis The re
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34 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis Unfort
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36 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis basis
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38 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis 14. Fo
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40 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis 33. It
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42 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis which
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44 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis assump
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2 THE “LIFE-CYCLE” HYPOTHESIS O
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The “Life-Cycle” Hypothesis of
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(11) I C 0.634 0.080 0.634 0.092 0.
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3 LONG-RUN IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNAT
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Long-Run Implications of Alternativ
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Table 3.1 A. Effects of Government
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4 RECENT DECLINES IN THE SAVINGS RA
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Table 4.1 (continued) Regression Va
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Recent Declines in the Savings Rate
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Table 4.2 (continued) First Differe
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Table 4.3 Period & estimation Surpl
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Page 144 and 145: Table 4.4 The Role of Major Variabl
Page 148 and 149: Table 4.5 Estimates for Developing
Page 150 and 151: Table 4.6 (continued) Savings Growt
Page 156 and 157: 5 THE AGE-SAVING PROFILE AND THE LI
Page 158 and 159: The Age Saving Profile 143 It is ob
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Page 164 and 165: The Age Saving Profile 149 therefor
Page 166 and 167: The Age Saving Profile 151 One poss
Page 168 and 169: The Age Saving Profile 153 0 50 100
Page 170 and 171: The Age Saving Profile 155 0 5 10 1
Page 172 and 173: The Age Saving Profile 157 -10 -5 0
Page 174 and 175: 10 40 45 Median discretionary savin
Page 176 and 177: The Age Saving Profile 161 effect f
Page 178 and 179: The Age Saving Profile 163 between
Page 180 and 181: The Age Saving Profile 165 tion. Si
Page 182 and 183: The Age Saving Profile 167 to save
Page 184 and 185: The Age Saving Profile 169 sampling
Page 186 and 187: The Age Saving Profile 171 10. One
Page 188 and 189: 6 THE CHINESE SAVING PUZZLE AND THE
Page 192 and 193: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 177 the p
Page 194 and 195: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 179 Even
Page 196 and 197: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 181 those
Page 198 and 199: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 183 3.3.2
Page 200 and 201: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 185 3. S(
Page 202 and 203: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 187 ddpCY
Page 204 and 205: Table 6.3 Estimates of Coefficients
Page 206 and 207: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 191 respe
Page 208 and 209: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 193 These
Page 210 and 211: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 195 marke
Page 212 and 213: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 197 coeff
Page 214 and 215: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 199 6 Con
Page 216 and 217: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 201 Accor
Page 218 and 219: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 203 Appen
Page 220: The Chinese Saving Puzzle 205 Horio
Page 224 and 225: 7 AN ECONOMISTS’ MANIFESTO ON UNE
Page 226 and 227: An Economists’ Manifesto on Unemp
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An Economists’ Manifesto on Unemp
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240 Unemployment and Monetary Polic
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11 LONG-TERM FINANCING IN AN INFLAT
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Long-Term Financing in an Inflation
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Long-Term Financing in an Inflation
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12 RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCE: HOW T
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 291 portf
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 293 sugge
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 295 Nonet
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 297 relat
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 299 On th
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 301 Nonet
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Risk-Adjusted Performance 303 perfo
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13 THE RULES OF THE GAME AND THE DE
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The Rules of the Game and the Devel
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14 EMERGING ISSUES IN THE WORLD ECO
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Emerging Issues on the World Econom
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328 Miscellanea mammoth unemploymen
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330 Miscellanea important one at th
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332 Miscellanea M M s M d M d Figur
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334 Miscellanea the flexibility of
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336 Miscellanea Table 15.1 (continu
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338 Miscellanea Table 15.2 Unemploy
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340 Miscellanea Table 15.2 (continu
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342 Miscellanea are equal: one must
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344 Miscellanea For the purpose of
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346 Miscellanea IV.4 The Saving—I
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348 Miscellanea corresponding axis
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350 Miscellanea understood however
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352 Miscellanea creates an excess s
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354 Miscellanea short of totalitari
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356 Miscellanea VI.5 The Role of Fi
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358 Miscellanea flexible nominal wa
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INTERVIEW IV
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364 Interview at Modigliani’s vac
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366 Interview Solow: Now, with Mars
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368 Interview in employment. When t
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370 Interview interest elasticity o
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372 Interview industries such as ag
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374 Interview The theorem, which by
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376 Interview governmental finance
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378 Interview Solow: You had a majo
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380 Interview consequences of “Pe
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382 Interview century, to below 6 p
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INDEX Accelerator effect, 221 Accou
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Index 387 Coefficients of the aggre
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Index 389 Equilibrium market, 328-3
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Index 391 cash, 142, 143 in China,
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Index 393 and open economy, 358 and
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Index 395 Monetary policy argument
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Index 397 Real wages. See Wages, re
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Index 399 Tanzania, income and savi
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Index 401 “Wedge” between pay a
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