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The Keynesian Gospel According to Modigliani 335 Table 15.1 Nominal <strong>com</strong>pensation per employee; total economy (national currency; annual percentage change) B DK D( 1 ) EL E F IRL I L NL 1961 3.3 12.9 10.2 4.6 12.9 10.6 8.3 8.2 2.9 7.4 1962 7.4 11.1 9.1 6.6 15.2 11.6 8.5 13.4 4.8 6.8 1963 8.1 4.6 6.1 7.7 21.1 11.4 5.2 19.7 8.0 9.3 1964 9.9 10.7 8.2 13.3 13.7 9.2 13.7 11.6 13.3 16.5 1965 9.6 13.8 9.5 12.2 15.6 6.5 5.3 8.2 4.2 11.7 1966 8.8 10.2 7.6 12.6 18.1 6.0 8.5 8.0 5.0 11.1 1967 7.5 11.0 3.3 9.5 14.7 7.0 8.0 8.3 2.8 9.3 1968 6.4 10.1 6.7 9.3 8.8 11.9 10.6 7.6 5.9 8.6 1969 8.5 11.4 9.5 9.6 11.8 10.9 13.9 7.6 5.6 13.2 1970 9.3 11.3 16.0 8.8 9.4 10.4 16.8 15.3 15.1 12.6 1961–70 7.9 10.7 8.6 9.4 14.1 9.5 9.8 10.7 6.7 10.6 1971 12.2 12.1 11.4 8.0 13.6 11.3 14.8 13.7 7.8 13.9 1972 14.2 8.7 9.6 12.6 17.7 10.1 15.8 10.6 9.7 12.9 1973 13.5 13.7 11.9 17.2 18.3 12.4 18.8 17.5 11.4 15.6 1974 18.0 18.9 11.4 19.3 21.3 17.8 18.0 22.9 22.9 15.8 1975 16.5 14.4 7.0 20.3 22.5 18.7 28.9 21.0 12.4 13.6 1976 15.8 12.1 7.7 23.2 23.4 14.8 19.6 21.1 11.1 11.0 1977 9.1 10.1 6.6 22.0 26.8 12.2 14.9 20.6 9.9 8.5 1978 7.2 9.8 5.5 23.1 24.8 12.4 15.5 16.4 5.9 7.0 1979 5.8 10.1 5.8 22.1 19.0 12.8 18.9 19.0 6.7 5.6 1980 10.6 10.7 6.8 15.7 17.3 14.4 21.1 21.7 9.2 5.4 1971–80 12.2 12.0 8.3 18.3 20.4 13.6 18.6 18.5 10.6 10.9 1981 6.4 9.8 4.8 21.3 15.6 14.0 18.1 22.5 8.3 3.4 1982 7.0 12.3 4.2 27.5 13.8 14.3 14.2 16.1 6.9 5.9 1983 5.9 8.8 3.6 21.6 13.9 10.2 12.8 15.8 6.9 3.1 1984 6.9 6.2 3.4 20.8 10.2 7.4 10.7 11.7 7.1 0.3 1985 5.1 5.4 2.9 21.0 9.6 6.9 9.2 10.0 4.3 1.3 1986 3.9 5.0 3.6 12.0 9.7 4.4 5.1 7.5 5.7 2.1 1987 2.0 8.5 3.2 11.3 7.3 3.3 5.1 7.9 4.1 1.4 1988 2.2 5.6 3.0 20.1 7.6 4.4 7.0 8.2 3.4 0.9 1989 3.9 4.2 2.9 23.2 7.5 4.1 6.5 8.6 7.7 0.7 1990 7.6 4.1 4.7 17.9 10.2 5.1 4.2 10.4 5.2 3.2 1981–90 5.1 7.0 3.6 19.6 10.5 7.3 9.2 11.8 6.0 2.2 1991 7.5 3.9 5.9 15.5 10.3 4.1 4.3 8.8 6.5 4.5 1992 5.8 4.2 10.5 11.8 11.3 4.4 7.0 5.8 5.3 4.7 1993 3.7 2.3 4.1 9.8 7.4 3.0 6.4 4.6 5.4 3.3 1994 4.0 3.5 3.0 10.9 3.7 2.1 2.5 3.0 4.0 2.8 1995 2.4 3.5 3.6 12.9 3.6 2.6 2.0 4.2 2.3 1.9
336 Miscellanea Table 15.1 (continued) (national currency; annual percentage change) B DK D( 1 ) EL E F IRL I L NL 1996 1.6 3.3 1.3 8.8 4.5 2.7 3.5 6.1 2.3 1.4 1997 2.9 3.5 0.3 13.6 2.1 2.3 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.2 1998 2.0 3.8 1.1 6.0 2.8 2.3 4.4 -1.5 0.9 2.8 1999 2.3 4.2 1.1 4.8 2.8 2.0 5.1 2.4 3.1 3.0 2000 3.2 3.9 1.2 5.0 4.0 1.6 7.9 2.9 5.1 4.1 1991–2000 3.5 3.6 3.2 9.8 5.2 2.7 4.6 4.0 3.8 3.1 2001 3.1 3.6 1.7 5.4 4.1 2.7 9.8 3.0 4.6 4.5 2002 3.0 3.7 2.5 5.7 2.9 3.1 8.8 2.9 3.7 4.5 ( 1 ) 1961–91: D_90. (national currency; annual percentage change) A P FIN S UK EUR-II( 1 ) EUR-12( 2 ) EU-15( 3 ) US JP 1961 9.3 5.8 7.9 8.1 6.5 9.6 9.5 8.7 3.2 13.2 1962 7.6 4.8 9.2 9.9 4.5 10.7 10.6 9.0 4.4 14.1 1963 7.9 8.1 10.8 9.4 4.9 11.7 11.6 9.7 4.0 13.2 1964 9.3 8.3 15.0 9.9 6.9 10.4 10.5 9.6 5.1 13.1 1965 9.1 11.0 9.6 8.6 6.7 9.2 9.2 8.7 3.7 11.9 1966 9.3 9.9 8.1 8.9 6.4 8.6 8.6 8.2 5.0 11.2 1967 9.5 13.7 9.7 9.2 6.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 4.3 12.1 1968 7.3 3.6 10.9 6.6 7.7 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.4 13.7 1969 8.3 10.0 7.4 6.9 7.1 9.9 9.9 9.2 7.3 15.8 1970 8.0 22.6 9.4 7.9 12.9 13.1 13.1 12.9 7.6 16.7 1961–70 8.6 9.7 9.8 8.5 7.0 9.9 9.9 9.1 5.2 13.5 1971 12.6 11.5 15.2 9.0 11.3 12.3 12.2 11.9 7.3 14.6 1972 11.0 15.8 14.6 8.5 13.0 11.3 11.3 11.5 7.3 14.2 1973 13.2 17.7 18.1 6.9 13.1 14.3 14.4 13.9 6.9 21.0 1974 13.9 35.1 24.0 12.9 18.7 17.4 17.5 17.6 8.2 25.7 1975 12.7 34.6 28.3 16.9 31.2 16.1 16.1 19.0 9.1 16.2 1976 9.2 24.5 16.3 17.9 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 8.3 11.1 1977 8.5 24.2 8.9 12.2 10.6 13.6 13.7 13.0 7.7 10.1 1978 9.0 18.8 6.1 10.9 13.3 11.9 12.0 12.2 7.7 7.5 1979 5.8 19.9 11.4 8.6 15.2 12.0 12.1 12.5 8.8 6.0 1980 6.6 25.7 13.1 10.9 19.8 13.2 13.2 14.3 10.2 6.5 1971–80 10.2 22.6 15.4 11.4 16.0 13.7 13.7 14.1 8.1 13.1 1981 8.1 21.0 13.5 9.2 14.1 12.1 12.2 12.6 9.5 6.4 1982 6.3 21.5 9.6 6.2 8.4 10.7 11.0 10.5 7.7 3.8 1983 4.7 21.8 10.0 7.9 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.3 5.4 2.2 1984 5.1 21.2 10.4 8.2 5.9 7.3 7.5 7.2 5.1 3.9
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THE COLLECTED PAPERS OF FRANCO MODI
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Franco Modigliani in 1992.
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© 2005 Massachusetts Institute of
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CONTENTS Preface Francesco Franco I
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PREFACE The essays collected in thi
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xii Introduction decades of the twe
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THE LIFE-CYCLE HYPOTHESIS I
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4 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis them. W
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6 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis which c
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8 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis extent
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10 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis Assump
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12 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis e dy d
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14 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis We wil
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16 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis The fi
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18 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis We fee
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20 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis P = y
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22 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis y y e
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24 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis consum
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26 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis as an
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28 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis It wil
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30 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis is one
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32 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis The re
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34 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis Unfort
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36 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis basis
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38 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis 14. Fo
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40 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis 33. It
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42 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis which
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44 The Life-Cycle Hypothesis assump
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2 THE “LIFE-CYCLE” HYPOTHESIS O
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The “Life-Cycle” Hypothesis of
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(11) I C 0.634 0.080 0.634 0.092 0.
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3 LONG-RUN IMPLICATIONS OF ALTERNAT
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Long-Run Implications of Alternativ
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Table 3.1 A. Effects of Government
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4 RECENT DECLINES IN THE SAVINGS RA
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Table 4.1 (continued) Regression Va
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Recent Declines in the Savings Rate
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Table 4.2 (continued) First Differe
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Table 4.3 Period & estimation Surpl
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Table 4.4 The Role of Major Variabl
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Table 4.5 Estimates for Developing
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Table 4.6 (continued) Savings Growt
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5 THE AGE-SAVING PROFILE AND THE LI
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The Age Saving Profile 143 It is ob
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The Age Saving Profile 145 The exer
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The Age Saving Profile 147 same coh
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The Age Saving Profile 149 therefor
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The Age Saving Profile 151 One poss
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The Age Saving Profile 153 0 50 100
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The Age Saving Profile 155 0 5 10 1
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The Age Saving Profile 157 -10 -5 0
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10 40 45 Median discretionary savin
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The Age Saving Profile 161 effect f
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The Age Saving Profile 163 between
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The Age Saving Profile 165 tion. Si
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The Age Saving Profile 167 to save
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The Age Saving Profile 169 sampling
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The Age Saving Profile 171 10. One
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6 THE CHINESE SAVING PUZZLE AND THE
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Table 6.1 Chinese Household Income
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 177 the p
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 179 Even
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 181 those
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 183 3.3.2
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 185 3. S(
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 187 ddpCY
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Table 6.3 Estimates of Coefficients
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 191 respe
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 193 These
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 195 marke
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 197 coeff
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 199 6 Con
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 201 Accor
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 203 Appen
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The Chinese Saving Puzzle 205 Horio
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7 AN ECONOMISTS’ MANIFESTO ON UNE
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An Economists’ Manifesto on Unemp
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240 Unemployment and Monetary Polic
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11 LONG-TERM FINANCING IN AN INFLAT
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Page 306 and 307: Risk-Adjusted Performance 291 portf
Page 308 and 309: Risk-Adjusted Performance 293 sugge
Page 310 and 311: Risk-Adjusted Performance 295 Nonet
Page 312 and 313: Risk-Adjusted Performance 297 relat
Page 314 and 315: Risk-Adjusted Performance 299 On th
Page 316 and 317: Risk-Adjusted Performance 301 Nonet
Page 318 and 319: Risk-Adjusted Performance 303 perfo
Page 320 and 321: 13 THE RULES OF THE GAME AND THE DE
Page 322 and 323: The Rules of the Game and the Devel
Page 334 and 335: 14 EMERGING ISSUES IN THE WORLD ECO
Page 336 and 337: Emerging Issues on the World Econom
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Page 343 and 344: 328 Miscellanea mammoth unemploymen
Page 345 and 346: 330 Miscellanea important one at th
Page 347 and 348: 332 Miscellanea M M s M d M d Figur
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Page 353 and 354: 338 Miscellanea Table 15.2 Unemploy
Page 355 and 356: 340 Miscellanea Table 15.2 (continu
Page 357 and 358: 342 Miscellanea are equal: one must
Page 359 and 360: 344 Miscellanea For the purpose of
Page 361 and 362: 346 Miscellanea IV.4 The Saving—I
Page 363 and 364: 348 Miscellanea corresponding axis
Page 365 and 366: 350 Miscellanea understood however
Page 367 and 368: 352 Miscellanea creates an excess s
Page 369 and 370: 354 Miscellanea short of totalitari
Page 371 and 372: 356 Miscellanea VI.5 The Role of Fi
Page 373 and 374: 358 Miscellanea flexible nominal wa
Page 376: INTERVIEW IV
Page 379 and 380: 364 Interview at Modigliani’s vac
Page 381 and 382: 366 Interview Solow: Now, with Mars
Page 383 and 384: 368 Interview in employment. When t
Page 385 and 386: 370 Interview interest elasticity o
Page 387 and 388: 372 Interview industries such as ag
Page 389 and 390: 374 Interview The theorem, which by
Page 391 and 392: 376 Interview governmental finance
Page 393 and 394: 378 Interview Solow: You had a majo
Page 395 and 396: 380 Interview consequences of “Pe
Page 397 and 398: 382 Interview century, to below 6 p
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INDEX Accelerator effect, 221 Accou
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Index 387 Coefficients of the aggre
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Index 389 Equilibrium market, 328-3
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Index 391 cash, 142, 143 in China,
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Index 393 and open economy, 358 and
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Index 395 Monetary policy argument
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Index 397 Real wages. See Wages, re
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Index 399 Tanzania, income and savi
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Index 401 “Wedge” between pay a
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