14-1190b-innovation-managing-risk-evidence
14-1190b-innovation-managing-risk-evidence
14-1190b-innovation-managing-risk-evidence
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
168<br />
27. Bickerstaffe, K. & Walker, G. Public<br />
understanding of air pollution: the ‘localisation’<br />
of environmental <strong>risk</strong>. Global Environmental<br />
Change 11(2), 133-<strong>14</strong>5 (2001)<br />
28. Niemeyer, S., Petts, J. & Hobson, K. Rapid<br />
climate change and society; assessing<br />
responses and thresholds. Risk Analysis 26(6),<br />
<strong>14</strong>43-<strong>14</strong>56, 2005<br />
29. Siegrist, M. & Gutscher, H. Flooding <strong>risk</strong>s: a<br />
comparison of lay people’s perceptions and<br />
experts’ assessments in Switzerland. Risk<br />
Analysis 26(4), 971-79 (2006)<br />
30. Petts, J. Health, responsibility, and choice:<br />
contrasting negotiations of air pollution and<br />
immunisation information. Environment and<br />
Planning A. 37, 791-804 (2005)<br />
31. Roco, M.C. Possibilities for global governace of<br />
converging technologies. Journal of Nanoparticle<br />
Research 10, 11-29 (2008)<br />
32. Owen, R., Stilgoe, J., Macnaghten, P., Gorman,<br />
M., Fischer, E & Guston, D. A Framework<br />
for Responsible Innovation. In: Responsible<br />
Innovation: Managing the Responsible Emergence<br />
of Science and Innovation in Society, R. Owen,<br />
J. Bessant & M. Heintz (eds), pp. 27-50 (John<br />
Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2013)<br />
33. Lee, R.G. & Petts, J. Adaptive Governance<br />
for Responsible Innovation. In: Responsible<br />
Innovation: Managing the Responsible Emergence<br />
of Science and Innovation in Society, R. Owen, J.<br />
Bessant & M. Heintz (eds), pp. <strong>14</strong>3-164 (John<br />
Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2013)<br />
34. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution<br />
Novel Materials in the Environment: The Case of<br />
Nanotechnology. 27 th Report. (The Stationary<br />
Office, London, 2008)<br />
35. Guston, D. & Sarewitz, D. Real-time technology<br />
assessment. Technology in Society 24(1-2), 93-<br />
109, 2002.<br />
36. Sykes, K & Macnaghten, P. Responsible<br />
Innovation – Opening up Dialog and<br />
Debate. In: Responsible Innovation: Managing<br />
the Responsible Emergence of Science and<br />
Innovation in Society, R. Owen, J. Bessant & M.<br />
Heintz (eds), pp. 85-107 (John Wiley & Sons,<br />
Chichester, 2013)<br />
37. Bull, R; Petts, J. & Evans, J. The importance<br />
of context for effective public engagement:<br />
learning from the governance of waste. Journal<br />
of Environmental Planning and Management<br />
53(8), 991-1010 (2010)<br />
38. Murdock, G., Petts, J. & Horlick-Jones, T.<br />
After amplification: rethinking the role of<br />
the media in <strong>risk</strong> communication. In: The<br />
Social Amplification of Risk , N, Pidgeon, R.E.<br />
Kasperson & P. Slovic (eds); pp. 156-178.<br />
(Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,<br />
2003)<br />
Chapter 9 Case Study: MMR, Bowel Disease,<br />
Autism and Measles<br />
1. Wakefield AJ, Pittilo RM, Sim R. Evidence of<br />
persistent measles virus infection in Crohn’s<br />
disease. J Med Virol 39:345–353, 1993.<br />
2. Farrington P, Miller E. Measles vaccination as<br />
a <strong>risk</strong> factor for inflammatory bowel disease.<br />
Lancet 345:1362, 1995.<br />
3. Feeney M, Ciegg A, Winwood P, Snook J. A<br />
case control study of measles vaccination and<br />
inflammatory bowel disease. Lancet 350:764–<br />
766, 1997<br />
4. Wakefield A, Murch SH, Anthony A, et al. Ileallymphoid-nodular<br />
hyperplasia, non-specific<br />
colitis, and pervasive developmental disorder<br />
in children. Lancet 351:637–641, 1998.<br />
5. Chadwick N, Bruce IJ, Schepelmann S, et<br />
al. Measles virus RNA is not detected in<br />
inflammatory bowel disease using hybrid<br />
capture and reverse transcription followed<br />
by the polymerase chain reaction. J Med Virol<br />
55:305–311, 1998.<br />
6. Cedillo & Cedillo vs. Secretary of Health and<br />
Human Services, No. 98-916V, 57-58 (United<br />
States Court of Federal Claims, 2009): http://<br />
www.autism-watch.org/omnibus/cedillo.pdf<br />
7. Taylor B, Miller E, Farrington CP, et al.<br />
Autism and measles, mumps and rubella:<br />
no epidemiological <strong>evidence</strong> for a causal<br />
association. Lancet 353:2026–2029, 1999.<br />
8. Fombonne E, Chakrabarti S. No <strong>evidence</strong><br />
for a new variant of measles-mumps-rubellainduced<br />
autism. Pediatrics 108(suppl 4):E58,<br />
2001.<br />
9. Medical Research Council. MRC Review of<br />
Autism Research: Epidemiology and Causes.<br />
London, Medical Research Council, 2001.<br />
Online. Available at: http://www.mrc.ac.uk/pdfautism-report.pdf.<br />
10. Dales L, Hammer SJ, Smith NJ. Time trends in<br />
autism and in MMR immunization coverage in<br />
California. JAMA 285:1183–1185, 2001.<br />
11. Farrington CP, Miller E, Taylor B. MMR and<br />
autism: further <strong>evidence</strong> against a causal<br />
association. Vaccine 19:3632–3665, 2001.<br />
12. Taylor B, Miller E, Lingam R, et al. Measles,<br />
mumps, and rubella vaccination and bowel<br />
problems or developmental regression in<br />
children with autism: population study. BMJ<br />
324:393–396, 2002.<br />
13. Madsen KM, Hviid A, Vestergaard M, et al. A<br />
population-based study of measles, mumps,<br />
and rubella vaccination and autism. N Engl J<br />
Med 347:<strong>14</strong>77–<strong>14</strong>82, 2002.<br />
<strong>14</strong>. Smeeth L, Cook C, Fombonne E, et al. MMR<br />
vaccination and pervasive developmental<br />
disorders: a case-control study. Lancet 364<br />
(9438):963–9, 2004.<br />
15. Ramsay ME, Yarwood J, Lewis D, et al. Parental<br />
confidence in measles, mumps, and rubella<br />
vaccine: <strong>evidence</strong> from vaccine coverage and<br />
attitudinal surveys. Br J Gen Pract 52:912–916,<br />
2002.<br />
16. Effects of media reporting on MMR coverage.<br />
Commun Dis Rep CDR Wkly 12(35):30, 2002.<br />
17. Tracking mothers attitudes to childhood<br />
immunisation 1991-2001. Yarwood J, Noakes<br />
K, Kennedy D, Campbell H, Salisbury D M.<br />
Vaccine 2005;23(48049):5670-87.<br />
18. Drop in MMR jabs blamed on media<br />
scare (1998): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/<br />
health/120277.stm<br />
19. Mason,BW and Donnelly PD Impact of a<br />
local newspaper campaign on the uptake of<br />
the measles mumps and rubella vaccine J<br />
Epidemiol Community Health 2000;54:473-<br />
474 doi:10.1136/jech.54.6.473<br />
20. NHS Immunisation Statistics England 2012–13:<br />
https://catalogue.ic.nhs.uk/publications/<br />
public-health/immunisation/nhs-immu-stat-<br />
eng-2012-2013/nhs-immu-stat-eng-2012-13-<br />
rep.pdf<br />
21. Ramsay ME et al. The Elimination of Indigenous<br />
Measles Transmission in England and Wales<br />
J. Infect. Dis. 2003; 187 (Supplement 1):<br />
S198-S207. doi: 10.1086/368024<br />
22. MMR doctor struck from register (2010):<br />
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8695267.stm<br />
Chapter 10: Managing Existential Risk from<br />
Emerging Technologies<br />
1. Beckstead, Nick et. al. (20<strong>14</strong>). “Unprecedented<br />
Technological Risks,” Working paper. Oxford<br />
University, Future of Humanity Institute.<br />
2. Office for National Statistics. (2012).<br />
“Mortality in England and Wales: Average<br />
lifespan, 2010.” Available online at http://www.<br />
ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/mortality-ageing/mortalityin-england-and-wales/average-life-span/rptaverage-life-span.html<br />
3. Matheny, Jason G. (2007) “Reducing the <strong>risk</strong> of<br />
human extinction.” Risk analysis 27, 1335-1344,<br />
p. 1336.<br />
4. For more detail, see Bostrom, Nick, and Milan<br />
M. Cirkovic, eds. (2008). Global catastrophic<br />
<strong>risk</strong>s. Oxford University Press.<br />
5. Jackson, Ronald J., et al. (2001). “Expression<br />
of mouse interleukin-4 by a recombinant<br />
ectromelia virus suppresses cytolytic<br />
lymphocyte responses and overcomes genetic<br />
resistance to mousepox.” Journal of Virology 75:<br />
1205-1210;<br />
Nowak, R. “Disaster in the making.” New<br />
Scientist; January 13, 2001.<br />
Ramshaw, I. XIII International Poxvirus and<br />
Iridovirus Symposium, Montpellier, France;<br />
September 2000.<br />
6. Buller, R.M.L. Smallpox BioSecurity: Preventing<br />
the Unthinkable, Geneva, Switzerland; October<br />
21–22, 2003.<br />
7. Imai, M. et al. “Experimental Adaptation of an<br />
Influenza H5 HA Confers Respiratory Droplet<br />
Transmission to a Reassortant H5 HA /H1N1<br />
Virus in Ferrets,” Nature 486, 420–428; June<br />
21, 2012.<br />
8. Fouchier, Ron et al. (2013). “Avian flu: Gainof-function<br />
experiments on H7N9.” Nature<br />
500,150–151.<br />
9. Lipsitch M, Galvani AP. (20<strong>14</strong>). “Ethical<br />
Alternatives to Experiments with Novel<br />
Potential Pandemic Pathogens.” PLoS Med<br />
11(5): e1001646.<br />
10. Church, George. (2004). A synthetic biohazard<br />
non-proliferation proposal, Cambridge, MA:<br />
Havard University. URL: http://arep.med.<br />
harvard.edu/SBP/Church_Biohazard04c.htm.<br />
11. Posner, Richard. (2004). Catastrophe: Risk<br />
and Response. p. 5. (Oxford University Press,<br />
Oxford).<br />
12. Myhrvold, Nathan. (2013). “Strategic Terrorism:<br />
A Call to Action,” in the Lawfare research<br />
paper series.<br />
13. Rees, Martin. (2003). Our Final Century.<br />
(Heinemann, London).<br />
<strong>14</strong>. Ibid. p. 48.<br />
15. For example, variants of a framework called<br />
AIXI have learned how to play a variety of off<br />
the shelf computer games just from access<br />
to a video stream of the computer screen<br />
and trial and error. Bellemare, Marc et al.<br />
(2013). “The Arcade Learning Environment: an<br />
evaluation platform for general agents.” Journal<br />
of Artificial Intelligence Research 47:253–79.<br />
16. For the most detailed discussion of this<br />
set of issues, see Bostrom, Nick. (20<strong>14</strong>).<br />
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.<br />
Oxford University Press. For related<br />
arguments, also see: