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14-1190b-innovation-managing-risk-evidence

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24<br />

<strong>innovation</strong> process, or one sector or set of activities. And<br />

we should be wary of imposing perspectives or policies that<br />

may skew <strong>innovation</strong> priorities in undesirable ways.<br />

Yet, there are data to be studied, rich lessons to be<br />

learned, and more benefits to realize. Nevertheless, policy<br />

has to be made and the <strong>evidence</strong> we have tried to assemble<br />

is, we would argue, helpful and valuable. This chapter has<br />

sought to capture some of the most important <strong>evidence</strong><br />

from economics and other social sciences. Understanding<br />

what has made <strong>innovation</strong> work or fail can play a valuable<br />

role in influencing what can make it work in the future.<br />

Drawing together the conclusions of this chapter, we<br />

identify four pillars or foundations of a first-class ‘<strong>innovation</strong><br />

infrastructure’:<br />

1. The first pillar is a high-quality, merit-based system<br />

of education and training. Its importance is difficult to<br />

overstate. The UK possesses some advantages in toptier<br />

institutions, but there is increasing competitiveness<br />

in universities worldwide, and these advantages require<br />

constant investment to be maintained. Further, the UK<br />

faces a serious <strong>risk</strong> of falling behind rising stars like South<br />

Korea in crucial population-wide competencies. Too many<br />

children experience low-quality schooling, which presents<br />

large economic costs for the long-term. On the national<br />

budget, education should be viewed not as an expenditure<br />

but as one of the highest-return investments available.<br />

2. The second pillar is substantial investment in basic<br />

research. Governments are able to manage levels of<br />

<strong>risk</strong> and time horizons on investment, which the private<br />

sector may find more difficult. This gives governments a<br />

special and indispensable role in supporting basic research.<br />

The UK government should take great care to ensure<br />

that its comparative advantage in basic research is not<br />

overwhelmed or weakened by understandable enthusiasm<br />

for commercialization in universities. By increasing its<br />

support for basic research, the UK government can<br />

expand the horizon of future growth.<br />

3. The third pillar is the system of governmentmanaged<br />

incentives that promote <strong>innovation</strong> via<br />

markets and entrepreneurship. First is an efficient<br />

and effective, and appropriately constrained, system of<br />

intellectual property rights. The system is due for an<br />

evaluation, with sensitivity to industry-specific needs.<br />

Secondary institutions include: systems and incentives<br />

for technology transfer that promote the diffusion of<br />

knowledge; policies to assist small firms to access licensing<br />

patents; regimes of taxes, subsidies and regulations that do<br />

not arbitrarily discriminate in fostering new firms and new<br />

ideas; and state development banks to provide patient,<br />

long-term capital to innovators. The details matter, and we<br />

have tried to indicate how they should be examined.<br />

4. The fourth pillar is the setting of, and investing<br />

in, national <strong>innovation</strong> priorities. One clear priority<br />

is resource management: increasing the productivity of<br />

energy, land and other natural resources, and minimising<br />

greenhouse gas emissions. The design of cities, as drivers<br />

of resource consumption as well as creativity and<br />

economic growth, is especially important. These are areas<br />

where markets and prices alone are unlikely to capture<br />

the interdependence and public nature of many of the key<br />

services and outcomes. They are also areas where benefits<br />

are likely to be fairly long-term. Other priorities should be<br />

determined through assessment of strategic advantages,<br />

engagement with leading innovators, and the generation of<br />

aspirational technology roadmaps.<br />

Finally, we identify four guidelines for the process of<br />

<strong>innovation</strong> policymaking:<br />

1. Take a long-term, systems view of <strong>innovation</strong>.<br />

This means avoiding narrow, compartmentalist views of<br />

policymaking that focus on just one sector and/or a short<br />

time horizon. An effective policy mix will take account of<br />

each part of the <strong>innovation</strong> system; will take advantage of,<br />

and be wary of, feedback between system components;<br />

and will appreciate that actions today have critical longterm<br />

implications. This type of approach will help lessen<br />

the scope for government failure that can arise from<br />

bureaucrats and politicians fiddling with processes they fail<br />

to understand. On the other hand, the potential market<br />

failures are so important, and the subject so vital for<br />

growth, competition and living standards, that government<br />

disengagement is not a sensible approach.<br />

2. Consult widely. Innovators’ needs vary widely<br />

across industries and institutions, and across parts of<br />

the <strong>innovation</strong> chain. Innovators may also recognize<br />

the potential for unwanted impacts, or detect them<br />

in practice, before policymakers are able. Ensure that<br />

important voices which may not be sufficiently prominent,<br />

such as those of small firms, teachers and of research<br />

scientists, are given weight.<br />

3. Adopt a learning approach to policy design and<br />

evaluation. This means trialling different approaches, and<br />

improving the collection of data on inputs, processes and<br />

outcomes as well as feedback from key actors. A range<br />

of <strong>innovation</strong> policy problems could benefit from this<br />

approach, including the design of grant application rules<br />

for basic research, of the school system, and of institutions<br />

for fostering university-industry linkages. Accompanying<br />

this should be a sustained investment in research on<br />

<strong>innovation</strong> itself. Such research is not easy given that the<br />

subject is about learning, covers many disciplines, and the<br />

outcomes may be uncertain and long term: but it is very<br />

important.<br />

4. Ensure that <strong>innovation</strong> policies are transparent,<br />

consistent and stable over time and investment.<br />

Innovation will be more likely to proceed where actors<br />

are more confident rather than more confused, and<br />

where evaluations of sovereign and policy <strong>risk</strong> favour<br />

commitment rather than withdrawal. Where future<br />

flexibility may be required, as is often the case for<br />

experimental policy, ensure that processes are specified<br />

in advance. Certainty is not on offer, but unnecessary<br />

uncertainty can be reduced. A fundamental lesson is that<br />

government-induced policy <strong>risk</strong> can be a major deterrent<br />

to both <strong>innovation</strong> and investment.

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