Growing the Wealth of the Poor - World Resources Institute

PROJECTED CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE IN 2080 DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGESource: Cline 2007Projected changes in agricultural productivity in 2080 due toclimate change, incorporating the effects of carbon fertilization-50% -15% 0 +15% +35% No datarange of important benefits—social and economic—for almost500 watershed communities. Water tables have risen, moreland can be irrigated, more livestock can be raised, and thereis more paid work for those who do not own land. Other benefitsinclude increased crop variety, including new cash crops;increased income; and increased social cohesion as heads offamilies leave less frequently to find work elsewhere duringwhat used to be long dry periods. (See Box 2.4: WatershedOrganisation Trust, India.)At the same time that the livelihoods of village residents haveimproved, restoration efforts have made the environment onwhich they depend—the watershed—more resilient to theexpected impacts of climate change.The same holds true for the farmers in Niger. It has taken morethan two decades to restore their agricultural lands to increasedfertility and productivity. Now almost half the cultivated land inthe country has been “re-greened,” densely covered with crops,shrubs, and trees, all of which have contributed to significantincreases in food production and improved economic circumstances.Soil and water conservation techniques have resultedin elevated water tables, richer soil, and the reclaiming of overCHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT POTENTIAL, 2000-2080AfricaLatin AmericaMiddle East & North AfricaDeveloping countriesWorldIndustrial countries-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 102080s as % of 2000 potentialSource: Cline 2007250,000 ha of barren land to productive agricultural use.(See Chapter 3: Turning Back the Desert: How Farmers HaveTransformed Niger’s Landscapes and Livelihoods.)Niger is one of a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africawhose agricultural productivity has been predicted to beAsia193