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ies continued in the ACTS programme with the<br />
SAMBA project, and a new and better demonstrator<br />
was built and shown during the EXPO’98<br />
in Lisbon [7]. We can conclude that MBS is a<br />
4th generation concept, and today no one will<br />
doubt that the bandwidth will be needed and exploited.<br />
There were also other projects in the ACTS programme<br />
which addressed what we could call 4G,<br />
like MEDIAN and WAND. In these projects<br />
high capacity WLANs were studied.<br />
The Drivers towards 4G<br />
It is important to raise the question whether<br />
UMTS will provide the platform for the new<br />
mobile multimedia world. UMTS is undoubtedly<br />
an important step on the way to integrating different<br />
communication needs on a mobile platform.<br />
What are the driving needs for a system beyond<br />
the upcoming 3G (UMTS)? Will the forces be<br />
capacity, meaning traffic per unit area, or will it<br />
be a question of throughput to handle multimedia<br />
services? Are new services coming up which<br />
put new demands on the network other than the<br />
mentioned ones?<br />
The Capacity Question<br />
This seems to be a never ending demand. The<br />
FMC trend will reach the less developed and<br />
very highly populated countries demanding an<br />
even higher capacity. In the Scandinavian countries<br />
all the previous systems have run out of<br />
capacity, perhaps with the exception of GSM<br />
1800 (so far).<br />
The trend is towards a huge future demand for<br />
mobile Internet access. Communications and<br />
broadcasting will merge, and what we get access<br />
to by wire, we also want on the “mobile”.<br />
When work towards 3G started, no-one was able<br />
to see how much the Internet would grow.<br />
million<br />
1800<br />
1600<br />
1400<br />
1200<br />
1000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
90<br />
Telektronikk 1.2001<br />
Cellular mobile subscribers<br />
worldwide (Source: ITU)<br />
So far, the systems have almost only been carrying<br />
voice traffic, however, this will not be the situation<br />
in the 4G time frame. The 3G network<br />
will give a good indication of the evolution from<br />
voice focused services to first generation multimedia<br />
services. It is therefore tempting to look<br />
into the situation in the fixed network as well as<br />
the PC software industry. This can give us a basis<br />
for what is a possible development when we are<br />
looking into future demands. In both cases the<br />
applications are more demanding regarding CPU<br />
power and throughput. The future network, or<br />
networks, must aim to follow the general development,<br />
taking into account the natural properties<br />
and impairments of the radio channel.<br />
Which new types of requirements must be translated<br />
into more general requirements to a 4G<br />
network? Two important key words can be<br />
mobility (services, VHE) and security. To optimize<br />
such a system towards a global market<br />
scalability will also become more important<br />
than today.<br />
What is 4G?<br />
Up to, and mostly including, 3G (UMTS), the<br />
generation steps have been quite distinct, but we<br />
now seem to face more diffuse transitions. It is<br />
clear that we no longer specify a complete system.<br />
0.5<br />
billion<br />
There are three important trends which show that even more efficient<br />
and flexible technologies must be developed:<br />
1. The number of cellular subscribers world-wide is growing exponentially.<br />
• In 2000 there were more than 500 million subscribers world-wide. The number<br />
is expected to pass 1 billion in 2005. At the same time, the number of<br />
mobile subscribers is expected to outnumber the fixed connections.<br />
2. The number of Internet connections is growing exponentially.<br />
3. The sale of wireless LAN solutions is growing significantly.<br />
1.5<br />
billion<br />
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 9 0<br />
Year<br />
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10<br />
Figure 3 Projected cellular<br />
growth [8]<br />
5