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Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries: - World Bank ...

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Reallocation and <strong>Adjustment</strong> <strong>in</strong> the Manufactur<strong>in</strong>g Sector <strong>in</strong> Uruguay 63ment, and white collar employment as functions of the parameters of the modelto be estimated and observed variables.The productivity shock and production function parameters were recoveredus<strong>in</strong>g the Lev<strong>in</strong>sohn and Petr<strong>in</strong> (2003) methodology. We also estimated establishmentlevel demand shocks us<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>verse demand equation implicit <strong>in</strong> ourmonopolistic competition assumption. The <strong>in</strong>verse (log) demand function was estimatedand the demand shock recovered as a residual.Frictionless factor levels are not the same as the desired ones. Both differ <strong>in</strong> thatthe desired levels are those that would be observed if adjustment costs were momentarilyremoved, while frictionless levels are those that would hold <strong>in</strong> the absenceof adjustment costs <strong>in</strong> all periods. To obta<strong>in</strong> the desired factor levels Eslavaet al. (2005) propose to follow Caballero and Engel (1993), who show that evenwith adjustment costs, under general assumptions the desired and frictionlessfactor demands are proportional.Follow<strong>in</strong>g Caballero et al. (1995; 1997) the proportionality constants can beobta<strong>in</strong>ed as the ratio between the actual and frictionless factor levels, for the yearwhere <strong>in</strong>vestment and employment growth take the median value for each ofthem. It implies that for a firm, <strong>in</strong> the year of the median employment growth andmedian <strong>in</strong>vestment, the desired and the actual adjustment co<strong>in</strong>cide.4.3 Protection, trade liberalization and other issues of <strong>in</strong>terestIn the case of Uruguay we can reasonably argue that the usual endogeneity critiqueto the use of tariffs or changes <strong>in</strong> tariffs as explanatory variables does notapply. Uruguay is a m<strong>in</strong>or player <strong>in</strong>tegrated with its much larger neighbor<strong>in</strong>geconomies <strong>in</strong> Mercosur. Hence the common external tariff and the changes <strong>in</strong>Uruguayan tariffs to converge to the trade bloc protection level are basically affectedby Argent<strong>in</strong>ean and Brazilian political players and beyond control for localfirms. This conclusion can be drawn from Olarreaga and Soloaga (1998), an applicationof a Grossman and Helpman (1994) ‘protection for sale’ model to theMERCOSUR common external tariff, <strong>in</strong> which it is shown that the customs unionexternal tariff follows closely the Brazilian tariff structure.In our econometric exercises we estimated the effect on reallocation and adjustmentfunctions of various protection and trade liberalization measures. Mak<strong>in</strong>guse of the particular <strong>in</strong>stitutional changes <strong>in</strong> Uruguay we could estimate theeffect of unions <strong>in</strong> reallocation rates and how they <strong>in</strong>crease or mitigate the effectsof trade liberalization. By <strong>in</strong>teract<strong>in</strong>g these variables with reallocation andadjustment functions we also studied the impact of different sector concentrationlevels as well as the impact of Ch<strong>in</strong>a and India’s import competition.5. RESULTS5.1 ReallocationWe found that creation and destruction rates for employment and capital wererelatively high and pervasive over time, both for white and blue-collar employ-

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