PRESS

society have intensified competition over ever scarcer
financial resources. Such fiscal burdens could prove
crippling in the years ahead, draining the political will
to spend substantially more on defense.
The past decade’s budgetary trends reflect Japan’s
monetary predicament. The defense budget suffered
cuts for 11 consecutive years, dropping from ¥4.94 trillion
in 2002 to ¥4.64 trillion in 2012. 30 In 2013, Prime
Minister Abe’s government announced a very modest
0.8 percent budgetary increase over the previous
year, reversing the steady decline. The cabinet then
approved a 2.8 percent boost to its defense budget for
fiscal year 2014, the largest year-on-year increase since
the mid-1990s.
In light of the deteriorating security environment,
the decision to reverse the steady decline was long
overdue. While the spending hikes are welcomed
news, they are unlikely to provide sufficient relief.
Military modernization programs will compete with
other priorities. For example, compensation for government
pay cuts following the March 2011 earthquake,
tsunami, and nuclear disasters could largely
nullify the growth in outlays. It thus remains unclear
how much more capability these modest increases
will buy.
Japan’s budgetary woes are even more alarming in
comparative terms. China has dramatically surpassed
Japan in defense spending over the past decade. The
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates
that the Chinese defense budget, measured in
constant 2011 dollars, grew from $52.8 billion in 2002
to $159.5 billion in 2012. Japan, by contrast, virtually
stood still, with its budget declining slightly from
$60.7 billion to $59.5 billion over the same period. 31
The Japanese Ministry of Defense reckons that Chi-
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