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189<br />

ness, September 2015, 1; Richard Dobbs et al., ‘‘Debt and (Not Much) Deleveraging,’’<br />

McKinsey Global Institute, February 2015.<br />

185. Bank of International Settlements, ‘‘Credit to the Non-Financial Sector,’’<br />

June 6, 2016.<br />

186. Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Beijing University, meeting with Commission,<br />

Beijing, China, June 24, 2016.<br />

187. Andrew Polk, China director at Medley Global Advisors, meeting with Commission,<br />

Beijing, China, June 24, 2016.<br />

188. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 10.<br />

189. Economist, ‘‘Weak Local Government Revenue Growth Raises Fiscal Concerns,’’<br />

April 16, 2015.<br />

190. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016.<br />

191. Chong-En Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng (Michael) Song, ‘‘The Long<br />

Shadow of a Fiscal Expansion,’’ Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Conference<br />

Draft, September 15–16, 2016, 13, 23.<br />

192. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 12–13.<br />

193. International Monetary Fund, ‘‘The People’s Republic of China: 2016 Article<br />

IV Consultation,’’ August 2016.<br />

194. International Monetary Fund, ‘‘The People’s Republic of China: 2016 Article<br />

IV Consultation,’’ August 2016, 23–24.<br />

195. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 3, 7–8.<br />

196. Amy He, ‘‘The World’s Biggest Uprooting,’’ China Daily, April 11, 2014;<br />

Liyan Qi, ‘‘China’s National Pension Fund a ‘Time Bomb,’ Researcher Says,’’ Wall<br />

Street Journal, November 13, 2014.<br />

197. Xinhua, ‘‘Six Provinces Face Imminent National Pension Deficit,’’ August 16,<br />

2016. Staff translation.<br />

198. Li Keqiang, Report on the Work of the Government (Third Session of the 12th<br />

National People’s Congress, Beijing, China, March 5, 2016), 17; World Bank, ‘‘Global<br />

Economic Prospects: Divergences and Risks,’’ June 2016, 10.<br />

199. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 10.<br />

200. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 4.<br />

201. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 12–13, 15–16; State<br />

Council of the People’s Republic of China, Guiding Opinions on Promoting Central-<br />

Local Fiscal Power and Expenditure Responsibilities Reform, August 24, 2016. Staff<br />

translation.<br />

202. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016.<br />

203. State Council of the People’s Republic of China, Guiding Opinions on Promoting<br />

Central-Local Fiscal Power and Expenditure Responsibilities Reform, August<br />

24, 2016. Staff translation.<br />

204. Mark Magnier, ‘‘China’s New Tax Regime to Spur Service Economy,’’ Wall<br />

Street Journal, April 28, 2016; China’s Ministry of Finance, Tax Policy Department,<br />

How Does the VAT Work in China?<br />

205. Deloitte, ‘‘Taxation and Investment in China 2015: Reach, Relevance, and<br />

Reliability,’’ 10.<br />

206. State Council of the People’s Republic of China, VAT Reform—A Critical<br />

Step in China’s Supply-Side Reform, Xinhua, March 21, 2016; Mark Magnier, ‘‘China’s<br />

New Tax Regime to Spur Service Economy,’’ Wall Street Journal, April 28,<br />

2016.<br />

207. Zheng Yangpeng, ‘‘Local Governments ‘to Be Hit by Adjustment to VAT,’ ’’<br />

China Daily, April 7, 2016.<br />

208. U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on the 13th<br />

Five-Year Plan, written testimony of Yilin Hou, April 27, 2016, 6–7, 16.<br />

209. Barry Naughton, ‘‘Local Debt Restructuring: A Case of Ongoing Authoritarian<br />

Reform,’’ China Leadership Monitor 47 (July 14, 2015): 4; Nicholas Zhu, ‘‘Regional<br />

and Local Governments—China: Key Factors Shaping Standalone Credit<br />

Strength,’’ August 24, 2016,’’ Moody’s Investors Service, 4, 8.<br />

210. Barry Naughton, ‘‘Local Debt Restructuring: A Case of Ongoing Authoritarian<br />

Reform,’’ China Leadership Monitor 47 (July 14, 2015): 4.<br />

211. Nicholas Zhu, ‘‘Regional and Local Governments—China: Key Factors Shaping<br />

Standalone Credit Strength,’’ August 24, 2016,’’ Moody’s Investors Service, 4.<br />

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