ANNUAL REPORT

dkrause on DSKHT7XVN1PROD with USCC
278
non-traditional threats, the increased capabilities may
shape Chinese interests and preferred methods of achieving
traditional regional security objectives. The implications for
the United States and its regional allies and partners are
uncertain. China’s increased military role in global affairs
and enhanced expeditionary capabilities could create a balancing
backlash among its Asian neighbors and contribute
to instability in the region, as incentives for preventive war
increase with the rapid shifts in the regional balance of
power. China could become confident in its ability to
achieve its objectives by brute force alone, especially with
domestic support. However, a global expeditionary PLA
could also create a more assertive China that is positioned
to provide international public goods, further enmeshing
Beijing into the current world order and reducing the incentives
for it to use force to resolve disputes. 166
The dual-use nature of expeditionary capabilities, therefore, is
resulting in China’s neighbors remaining interested in the United
States being politically, economically, and militarily engaged in the
Asia Pacific as a counter to an aggressive China if necessary.
Conclusions
• The military capabilities China is developing will expand or improve
the ability of the People’s Liberation Army to conduct a
range of externally focused operations, to include combat insertion,
island landing operations, humanitarian assistance/disaster
relief operations, noncombatant evacuation operations, and
peacekeeping missions. Improvements in these areas can also
strengthen China’s traditional warfighting capabilities against
weaker neighbors. Given its enhanced strategic lift capability,
strengthened employment of special operations forces, increasing
capabilities of surface vessels and aircraft, and more frequent
and sophisticated experience operating abroad, China may also
be more inclined to use force to protect its interests.
• China’s pursuit of expeditionary capabilities, coupled with the
aggressive trends that have been displayed in both the East and
South China seas, are compounding existing concerns about China’s
rise among U.S. allies and partners in the greater Asia. This
also is driving additional increases in defense acquisitions
throughout the region.
• The People’s Liberation Army will continue to modernize in the
area of logistics, with implications for expeditionary operations.
The air force will continue to see additional strategic airlift aircraft
incorporated into the air order of battle, particularly once
the Y–20 heavy lift aircraft enters serial production. Furthermore,
China is likely to continue to seek opportunities to secure
military facilities abroad, such as the one it has begun constructing
in Djibouti, to facilitate a range of operations.
• Regardless of China’s interest in developing a more robust expeditionary
capability, regional contingencies, such as a conflict
with Taiwan or concerning maritime disputes in the East or
South China seas, will remain the focus of Chinese war planning.
VerDate Sep 11 2014 12:16 Nov 02, 2016 Jkt 020587 PO 00000 Frm 00188 Fmt 6601 Sfmt 6601 G:\GSDD\USCC\2016\FINAL\06_C1_C2_M.XXX 06_C1_C2_M