Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka
Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Den.tro de la Pren.sa-Baszn.Özeti
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Turkey
A revolution, of sorts
ANKARA AND ISTANBUL
'Thining the generals, and knocking at Europe's door
THIS week Thrkey's government, led by deemed sacrilege barely a decade ago. In-
Tayyip Erdogan, put two hugely potent deed, it remains a crime to insult his name.
bills through parliament. One should dra- Three new challenges stand out. First,
matically weaken the power of the gener- to qualify for EU membership, Thrkey
als, who, as proclaimed guardians of the must still implement a bevy of drastic recountry's
secular constitution, have long forms, including those enacted this week,
been accustomed, to interfere in politics, ' ,entailing changes in its approach to
thereby mocking Thrkey's claim to be a individual rights that will alter the very nathorough-going
democracy. The other bill ture of the bossy Thrkish state. Second,
offers a qualified amnesty to the rump of a linked to that change, a new relationship
Kurdish guerrilla force that, until a cease- between government at the centre and
fire in 1999, was fighting a vicious war in Thrkey's large Kurdish minority may rethe
country's south-east, which in turn quire a redefinition of Thrkish identity and
was partly responsible for Thrkey's dread- may even lead in the end to an unprecefui
record of human-rights abuse. Both dented measure of devolution, though
bills are the latest striking signal that the few people dare to contemplate it yet (see
country is determined to revamp its entire our next article). Third, the upheavals nextsystem
of governance in order to qualify, doorinIraqmean that Turkeymust rethink
some day, for membership of the Euro- its role as a regional power broker.
pean Union. The most immediate foreign-policy
But the road towards thatgoal remains question for the government is whether to
very rocky. A slow realisation that a new send Thrkish troops into Iraq under Ameriworld
order has emerged since America's can overall command-on the understandinvasion
of Iraq, together with the ap- ing that they would have to help keep the
proach of a crunch moment in a year or so peace in the south and not in Kurdish
in the long campaign to join the EU, means northern Iraq where they would be unthat
the government is still facing one of welcome. The Thrkish government would
the hardest tests since Kemal Ataturk re- much prefer to go in under a UN umbrella.
placed the Ottoman sultans some eight de- _Yet,if that is not (yet) available, it would be
cades ago with his version of a secular and, loth to turn down the chance to display its
authoritarian state that has more or less readiness to help Thrkey's American allies
survived until now. But the legacy of Ata- and to repair relations that were sorely
turk, the great moderniser, has itself be- damaged, just before the recent invasion
come a brake on continuing modernisa- of Iraq, when Thrkey's parliament refused
tion and must steadily be refashioned or to give permission for American troops to
discarded-a notion that would have been use eastern Thrkey as a launch-pad for a
second front. In any event, Thrks as a
whole have remained strongly opposed to
Americanpolicy over Iraq and many of
Mr Erdogan's Justice and Development
Party, as well as the opposition, share
those feelings.
Since the government took office last
November, it has on the whole done quite
well, despite some hiccups. A big advantage
over its predecessors, many of which
were rancorous and fragile push-me-pullyou
coalitions, is that it has a huge majority
in parliament, a good four more years
in which to make wrenching economic,
human-rights and judicial changes, and
an unusual font of goodwill at home and
abroad. But it is inexperienced, torn by
conflicting pressures (notably in foreign
policy), and already has a squad of trouble-makers
in its ranks. In addition, Thrkey's
economy, though recovering pluckily
from a financial crash two-and-a-half
years ago thanks partly to the watchful
eye-and massive loans-of the IMF, is still
very frail.
Secret Islamist schemes?
Moreover, the ruling party's Islamist roots,
albeit disavowed by its current leaders,
still make many Thrks queasy, especially
in commercial and liberal-leaning circles
in Istanbul, their greatest city. Many still
suspect that Mr Erdogan has a "secret Islamist
agenda" which he would like to enact
once he has consolidated his hold on
the state, pushed the generals into the
shade, and got the cover of the European
Union for protection. Such worries make
many of the country's generals even
twitchier; indeed, it is not yet certain they
will accept the trimming of their power.
The generals' two biggest bugbears
have long been Muslim fundamentalism
(from which Mr Erdogan's party is now so
keen to distance itselO and Kurdish separatism
that might, if it, grew stronger, ••
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