EurasianStudies_0110..

January-March 2010 JOURNAL OF EURASIAN STUDIES Volume II., Issue 1.
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MAHAPATRA, Debidatta Aurobinda
Volatility and Ethnic Instability in Post-Soviet Trans-Caucasus
Abstract
Post-Soviet Caucasus is one of the most intriguing phenomena in world politics. Besides being part of
the past Soviet legacy, its location in the world map as a bridge between East and West, its ethnic mosaic
and energy resources make the region a multi-dimensional riddle yet to be grappled with in all its
dimensions. Hence, any analysis of the Caucasus must take into account the evolution of the region as a
new entity in 21 st century post cold war, post-Soviet era. Though of late analysts have focused on this
evolving phenomenon, much remain to be explored. The current paper analyses some of the interrelated
aspects of Caucasian politics while focusing on the South Ossetian crisis in order to demonstrate that the
conflict potential in the turbulent region still remains high and volatile, mainly owing to diverse interests
of diverse players both regional and external.
Key words: Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, US, South Ossetia, Abkhazia
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What makes the Caucasian region a complex subject of analysis is its character of an ethnic cauldron.
The whole region starting from the Black sea in the east to the Caspian Sea to the west and from the
southern Russia in the north to Turkey and Iran in south is inhabited by numerous ethnic communities.
The earlier Soviet system had promoted the ideal of a nation where about 130 ethnic groups lived
together in peace and harmony. (Souders and Kanet 1994, p. 134) However, the inter-meshing of
divergent ethnic groups and its haphazard treatment and acquiescence during the Soviet era suddenly
burst up after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Whether it was Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, or Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or Chechnya, the region has witnessed not only bloody wars
but also mass exodus of people from their native places. Further compounding the problem, the ethnic
monster has been nursed and protracted with religious terrorism and fundamentalism. Despite
international attention the region is still a hotspot of ethnic rivalry, arms accumulation and concentration
and jingoism fuelled by oil money.
One trend found in the countries of the region is their common dislike of Russia; perhaps Armenia is
the sole exception. Both Georgia and Azerbaijan are enthusiastic to join NATO to counter Russia’s
influence, while Russia considers the region its backyard to be watched and nursed carefully and
sometimes with force. Besides Russia’s proximity as a factor, the Russian minorities in the post-Soviet
states have evinced Russian interest in the region. Protection of ‘Russian-speakers’ abroad is a foreign
policy priority for Russia. (Valdez 1995, p. 104) Taking into factor these issues, Russia abhors any
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