Report

More documents

Recommendations

Info

194 QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM ECONOMIC COOPERATION IN SOUTH ASIA distance in the reforms journey and have also made commitments at the multilateral trading system, in order to reap the benefits of liberalisation they need to further liberalise. This is so, because their level of commitments is far short of the level, autonomous liberalisation has achieved. Moreover, they need to undertake more liberal commitments at the regional level without being much apprehensive about the adverse implication of liberalisation. Given the resource endowments the region has, it is expected that the five sectors – construction, tourism, health, telecommunications and higher education – can provide further fillip to the growth momentum and also help sustain that.
17 Way Forward in SAFTA WAY FORWARD It has been recognised that trade and investment flows have played a crucial role in the economic integration of various regions of the world, and it could have been true for South Asia too. Although, intra-regional trade in South Asia has been increasing steadily, it continues to be low. The region lags far behind other regions in terms of economic integration though considerable potential exists. This study uses alternative methodologies and arrives at the conclusions that there exists economic rationale for SAFTA as all member countries gain by SAFTA, particularly Bangladesh. These results have also been supported by some other studies (Mukherjee 2004) which indicate economic gains that would accrue from SAFTA. However, there is much variation across studies in the magnitude predicted for these advantages. Furthermore, this study indicates the gains that may accrue to the member countries in terms of increase in services trade and foreign direct investments with SAFTA. The study emhasises that FTA in goods will provide gains to all member countries; additional gains can be harnessed through deeper regional integration in services, trade facilitation and investments. The following steps will lead to achieving this goal: Cutting Down the Size of Sensitive Lists The size of SAFTA’s Sensitive List was negotiated with reference to the total number of items in HS system. No threshold was prescribed to ensure that members get an assured market access in terms of coverage of bilateral trade volumes. The present size of the sensitive list of 25% of the total number of items at 6-digit HS level is much bigger than any successful RTA. It has been understood that in the recent SMC meeting held on 3 March 2008 in New Delhi, the Ministers have decided that the committee of experts will start negotiations for the removal of items from the Sensitive List (instead of a review after 4 years as prescribed under SAFTA). To facilitate the intra-regional trade and investment flows it is important that the size of the sensitive list of each SAFTA member is reduced drastically. In order to achieve this objective, economic analysis can be adopted and the possibility of reducing sensitive lists of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka can be explored. The following criteria for reducing the Sensitive Lists are suggested: • In case a country is competitive in a product in the Sensitive List compared to other three countries, its domestic industry may not be threatened from imports from the other three countries. Accordingly, that product may be removed from the Sensitive List. Competitiveness could be based on Revealed Comparative Advantage Analysis. • In case a country has high global imports of a product in the sensitive list, it indicates that there is insufficient domestic supply capacity for the product concerned. Accordingly, that product may be removed from the sensitive list. In respect of non-LDC countries, 0.01% of total imports can be taken as high global imports in a particular tariff line. However, as LDCs are import-dependent, 0.04% of their total imports can be taken as the benchmark for high global imports. • In case there are no global exports of a product from 3 countries in the sensitive list of the country concerned, it is unlikely to be imported into the country concerned from the other 3 countries. Accordingly, this product may be removed from the sensitive lists. Based on above criteria sensitive lists of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka can be reduced by more than 25%, and that of Bangladesh by 15%. Accordingly, the following modality is suggested as a possible way forward for reducing the sensitive list:
Page 3 and 4:
QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM ECO
Page 5 and 6:
QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM ECO
Page 7:
Preface Our consultations with seni
Page 10 and 11:
viii CONTENTS 7. Revenue and Welfar
Page 13 and 14:
Executive Summary OBJECTIVE This st
Page 15 and 16:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiii Table 1 EAMA
Page 17 and 18:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv India A full S
Page 19 and 20:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii indicates th
Page 21 and 22:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xix ments on basi
Page 23:
Part I BENEFITS FROM TRADE, INVESTM
Page 26 and 27:
4 QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM E
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
10 QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
2 Literature Review and Rationale f
Page 48 and 49:
Page 50 and 51:
Page 52 and 53:
Page 54 and 55:
Page 56 and 57:
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
4 Effective Additional Market Acces
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
6 Impact of SAFTA on Member Countri
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
7 Revenue and Welfare Implications
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
8 Impact of SAFTA on Inward and Out
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
9 Quantification of Benefits from T
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 115:
Part II BENEFITS FROM DEEPENING INT
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
11 Construction and Related Enginee
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
12 Tourism and Travel Related Servi
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156 and 157:
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167: 144 QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM
Page 172 and 173: 14 Health and Related Services 1 IN
Page 186 and 187: 15 Prospects for the Telecommunicat
Page 223: APPENDICES
Page 236 and 237: Appendix 8 Intra SAARC FDI Collabor
Page 238 and 239: Appendix 11 Table A11.1 On an Emplo
Page 240 and 241: Appendix 12 Original Commitments/In
Page 252 and 253: Appendix 14 Table A14.1 Telecommuni
Page 258 and 259: Appendix 15 REFERENCE PAPER Scope T
Page 261 and 262: Bibliography Abelson, P. (1996),
Page 263 and 264: BIBLIOGRAPHY 241 Cuba (2002), Negot
Page 265 and 266: BIBLIOGRAPHY 243 (2004), Impacts of
Page 267 and 268:
BIBLIOGRAPHY 245 Silva, Patricia an
Page 269 and 270:
BIBLIOGRAPHY 247 (1998), Tourism Se
show all

Report

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?