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© Macmillan India Ltd., 2008 The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank, or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published, 2008 MACMILLAN INDIA LTD. Delhi Bangalore Chennai Kolkata Mumbai Ahmedabad Bhopal Chandigarh Coimbatore Cuttack Guwahati Hubli Hyderabad Jaipur Lucknow Madurai Nagpur Patna Pune Thiruvananthapuram Visakhapatnam Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 10: 0230-63637-3 ISBN 13: 978-0230-63637-8 Published by Rajiv Beri for Macmillan India Ltd. 2/10, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Printed at Baba Barkha Nath Printers 37, MIE, Bahadurgarh, Haryana 124 507 UNCTAD/DITC/2008/3 This <strong>Report</strong> was prepared under Asian Development Bank’s Technical Assistance TA 4780: Knowledge Management and Capacity Building and UNCTAD-MOIC-DFID project on “Strategies and Preparedness for Trade and Globalisation in India”. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its member states. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This book is meant for educational and learning purposes. The author(s) of the book has/have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the contents of the book do not violate any existing copyright or other intellectual property rights of any person in any manner whatsoever. In the event the author(s) has/have been unable to track any source and if any copyright has been inadvertently infringed, please notify the publisher in writing for corrective action.
Preface Our consultations with senior policy-makers and think tanks in the region, over the past few years had underlined the need for a comprehensive quantification of the benefits from regional cooperation in South Asia, in order to build greater confidence in the SAFTA process and combat the negative perceptions about its outcomes. This study was consequently initiated by ADB’s India Resident Mission in partnership with UNCTAD in 2006. We would like to particularly acknowledge the role of Veena Jha, former coordinator of the UNCTAD India program, for readily agreeing to join the study and seeing it through its early phases. The main conclusion of the study, carried out over a period of one-and-half years, is that SAFTA will continue to contribute to stronger economic growth in the region. The result is corroborated by a variety of modelling techniques that have been employed to overcome the shortcomings of using one methodology alone. An optimistic scenario is revealed with SAFTA – although some sectors lose and some sectors gain in each country – a result in contrast to earlier studies. The welfare gains from trade in goods arise on account of improvements in complementarity within the region over the past few years, implying the fact that exports of countries are becoming increasingly regional. The study also clearly establishes that gains are much higher if efficient systems are simultaneously established for regional trade, transportation, and infrastructure. Consultation seminars were organised by leading think-tanks in the region to seek views from all stakeholders, including senior policy-makers, industry representatives, and academia. Seminars were held across five South Asian capitals, with representation from all eight countries, starting at Colombo in March and concluding at Islamabad in May this year. We received excellent feedback from each of these seminars which has been incorporated into this final version of the report. We wish to acknowledge our deepest appreciation for the efforts of Saman Kelegama, Executive Director, Institute of Policy Studies, Colombo; Manab Majumdar, Senior Director, Federation of the Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi; Mustafizur Rehman, Executive Director General, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka; Navin Dahal, Executive Director, South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics, and Environment, Kathmandu; and Safdar Sohail, Director General, Foreign Trade Institute of Pakistan, Islamabad and the efforts of their teams who were instrumental in organizing these consultations. We also wish to place on record our gratitude to SAARC Secretary-General Sheel Kant Sharma and Director, Trade, Vinay Kwatra for sparing valuable time to discuss the Study at Kathmandu. We hope this work will be of use to the SAARC Secretariat and member countries in taking SAFTA forward. Kunio Senga Director General, South Asia Department, ADB
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34 QUANTIFICATION OF BENEFITS FROM
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4 Effective Additional Market Acces
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6 Impact of SAFTA on Member Countri
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7 Revenue and Welfare Implications
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8 Impact of SAFTA on Inward and Out
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9 Quantification of Benefits from T
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Part II BENEFITS FROM DEEPENING INT
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15 Prospects for the Telecommunicat
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APPENDICES
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Appendix 8 Intra SAARC FDI Collabor
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Appendix 11 Table A11.1 On an Emplo
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Appendix 12 Original Commitments/In
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Appendix 14 Table A14.1 Telecommuni
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Appendix 15 REFERENCE PAPER Scope T
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Bibliography Abelson, P. (1996),
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 241 Cuba (2002), Negot
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 243 (2004), Impacts of
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 245 Silva, Patricia an
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BIBLIOGRAPHY 247 (1998), Tourism Se
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