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110 The Benefits to Taxpayers from Increases in Students’ Educational Attainment Table C.8b Estimated Two-Part Model of 2002 Social Security Income OLS - Income Received (square root) Women Men Under 63 Over 62 Under 63 Over 62 Intercept 46.992** 203.691** 5.060 117.329 Education level Less than high school graduate 1.545 –200.299* 54.423** 182.044 Some college –38.776 –147.853 21.444 –81.622 Bachelor’s degree or more 116.283 –2.247 160.677* –329.631* Age Age 0.636 –3.662* 2.754** –0.291 Age squared –0.004 0.028* –0.021* 0.001 Age–less than high school graduate –0.358 5.198* –2.783* –5.361 Age–some college 1.801 4.034 –0.619 2.109 Age–bachelor’s degree or more Age squared –less than high school graduate –3.289 0.240 –7.069* 8.858* 0.005 –0.034* 0.029* 0.038 Age squared–some college –0.019 –0.027 0.002 –0.013 Age squared–bachelor’s degree or more 0.023 –0.002 0.070 –0.058* Race/ethnicity Asian –3.966 –7.041* 1.663 –13.146** Black –0.050 –4.222** –5.740* –8.923** Hispanic –3.774 –7.250** 0.951 –7.775** Native American –14.760* –2.995 2.303 –10.555 Immigrant –4.545 –2.519 –7.490 –4.066* N 1,039 4,418 764 3,203 R squared 5% 7% 16% 7% NOTES: One and two asterisks indicate significance at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels, respectively. Education effects (main and interacted) are jointly significant in all models at the 0.01 level. The intercept is high school graduate, white, U.S.-born.
Appendix D Incarceration Cost Estimations Our approach to estimating incarceration spending is a variant of the two-part model. The first part estimates the likelihood of becoming an inmate and uses individual data from surveys of the criminal justice system and the general population. The second part uses administrative data to calculate per-person estimated incarceration spending, like some social support and insurance programs for which benefit data are not available in surveys. Probability of Incarceration Prisons We estimate the probability of imprisonment at the individual level as the number of prisoners in each demographic category divided by the general population for that category. We use the 1997 administration of the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities to estimate the incarcerated population for each combination of education level, age, race/ethnicity, and gender. We use the 1997 Current Population Survey to estimate general population counts in each corresponding subgroup. Because the Current Population Survey does not include incarcerated persons, we calculate the probability of incarceration as the number of prisoners in each population category divided by the sum of the general population and the number of prisoners for that category. Per-person prison spending computed from the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice 2003 (Pastore and Maguire, 2007), shown in Table 5.2, constitutes the second part of the two-part model. Jails We estimate the probability of being jailed at the individual level as the number of jail inmates in each demographic category divided by the general population for that category. We use the 2002 Survey of Inmates of Local Jails to estimate the jail population for each combination of education level, age, race/ethnicity, and gender. We use the 2002 Current Population Survey to estimate general population counts in each corresponding subgroup. Here, too, because the Current Population Survey does 111
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THE ARTS CHILD POLICY CIVIL JUSTICE
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The Benefits to Taxpayers from Incr
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Preface Meeting the educational dem
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Figures 3.1. Present Value of Lifet
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Abbreviations ADA CPS EITC FTE GED
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Chapter Two Analytic Approach There
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Analytic Approach 15 effects of edu
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Analytic Approach 17 women employed
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Analytic Approach 19 State and Loca
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Analytic Approach 21 tion of educat
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Analytic Approach 23 The difference
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Analytic Approach 25 but a very sma
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Analytic Approach 27 1997 changes g
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Chapter Three Payments for Taxes an
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Payments for Taxes and Social Progr
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Chapter Four Spending on Social Sup
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Spending on Social Support Programs
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Page 101 and 102: Educational Attainment and Public R
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Page 115 and 116: Data and Sources 89 Program Benefit
Page 117 and 118: Appendix B Estimating Tax Payments
Page 119 and 120: Estimating Tax Payments 93 Federal
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Page 139 and 140: References Aos, Steve, Roxanne Lieb
Page 141 and 142: References 115 Krop, Richard, Steph
Page 143: References 117 U.S. Department of J
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