The Benefits to Taxpayers from Increases in Students - RAND ...

Spending on Social Support Programs 59
Table 4.2
Range of Percentage Reduction in Social Program Spending If Effect
of Increased Education Is Reduced 25 Percent, U.S.-Born Men and
Women
Increase in Education Level
Less than high school graduate
to high school graduate
High school graduate to some
college
Some college to bachelor’s
degree or more
Less than high school graduate
to bachelor’s degree or more
Percentage Reduction
30 (Hispanic woman) to 33 (white man)
10 (white man) to 21 (black woman)
12 (black man) to 20 (white man)
23 (black woman) to 25 (white man)
ferent demographic groups. Decreases in the estimated effects of increases in education
from high school graduate to some college and from some college to bachelor’s degree
or more generally result in greater reductions in estimated total benefits for men and
for whites.
Even if we assume that the estimates of the effects of increased educational attainment
are overly optimistic, the results still imply that such increases will yield significant
decreases in social program spending. Table 4.3 shows the smallest estimated
decrease in social program spending resulting from an increase in education across the
U.S.-born demographic groups if the estimate of the effects of the increase in education
is reduced 25 percent. In each case, increases in a white man’s education would yield
the smallest estimated decrease in social program spending.
For example, suppose we assume that our estimate of the effect of increasing education
from less than high school graduate to high school graduate on social program
spending is 25 percent too high. If we recalculate the effect on social program spend-
Table 4.3
Smallest Estimated Effect of Increased Education on Reduction in
Social Program Spending If Effect of Increased Education Is Reduced
25 Percent, U.S.-Born Men and Women
Increase in Education
Less than high school graduate
to high school graduate
High school graduate to some
college
Some college to bachelor’s
degree or more
Less than high school graduate
to bachelor’s degree or more
Smallest Estimated Reduction in Social
Program Spending (2002 $, thousands)
15 (white man)
8 (white man)
7 (white man)
28 (white man)