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90 RURAL-URBAN DISPARITIES AND DYNAMICS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 infectious diseases and more from unhealthy living conditions, such as indoor air pollution or lack of access to safe water and sanitation, which lead to water-borne and respiratory illnesses among children (UN-Habitat 2008). Sub-Saharan Africa: Low urban poverty concentrated in the largest cities An ongoing study of 12 Sub-Saharan African countries shows that although the poverty–city size gradient observed in African countries is similar to that seen in developing countries elsewhere, the African experience is different (Coulombe and Lanjouw 2013). Not surprising, poverty is a rural phenomenon in the region, with the share of the poor in rural areas ranging from 68 percent in the Central African Republic to 90 percent in Mali and Swaziland to 95 percent in Malawi. The urban poor are a small share of the total urban population, but unlike other regions, they are concentrated in large cities. Sub-Saharan Africa thus reflects a “largest city” model: the largest city accounts for a disproportionately large share of the total urban population and hence also for the bulk of the urban poor. For example, in the Central African Republic, Gabon, and Malawi, more than half of each country’s urban poor live in the largest city, which is usually the capital. In Guinea, Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Swaziland, 40 percent of the urban poor live in the largest city. In most African countries, “urban” is synonymous with “largest city.” In Malawi, Mali, and Togo, the combined population of the towns with 5,000–100,000 inhabitants account for just 2–6 percent of the total population. This pattern is different from other predominantly “rural” developing countries such as India and Vietnam. The primary reason for urban poverty’s relative concentration in the capital city is the paucity of better-paying, nonfarm jobs in smaller towns. Rural migration to urban areas in Sub-Saharan Africa has stalled in large part because the structural transformation from agriculture to industry (manufacturing and services) has been slow to emerge. Manufacturing, especially agro-industry, and related service sectors account for only 10 percent of the economy in the region, and industries related to them generally locate in the largest city. South and East Asia: High urban poverty concentrated in small towns Despite their megacities and sprawling slums, urban poverty in South and East Asia is firmly located in smaller towns, not in big cities. The majority of the poor in South Asia reside in rural areas where the poverty rate was 38 percent in 2008. At 30 percent, the urban poverty rate was only 4 percentage points below that in Sub-Saharan Africa in the same year. But unlike Africa, poverty rates in smaller towns are significantly higher than in megacities. Recent research in India, for example, indicates that poverty is still primarily a rural phenomenon at the aggregate level, but that urban poverty is growing and, within urban areas, is concentrated in smaller towns. The poverty rate in India in 2004–05 was 28 percent in rural areas and 26 percent in urban areas. As figure 2.4a shows, among urban areas, the poverty rate in small towns (population less than 50,000) was double the rate in large towns with a population of 1 million or more (30 percent to 15 percent) (World Bank 2011; Lanjouw and Marra 2012). The poverty–city size gradient is steep in India, however, so even a “medium” city has close to 1 million residents. In Vietnam, in contrast, the population of an average medium-size town is about 85,000. In Vietnam, the nexus between urban population and urban poverty is mirrored in a remarkable U-shape (figure 2.4b). Two megacities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh, with a population of over 4 million each, are home to about 30 percent of urban residents but only about 10 percent of the poor. In comparison, the 634 smallest Vietnamese towns, with an average population of about 10,000, are home to more than 55 percent of the urban poor (World Bank 2011; Lanjouw and Marra 2012). Small towns can play an important role in arresting the “urbanization” of poverty if
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 RURAL-URBAN DISPARITIES AND DYNAMICS 91 FIGURE 2.4 In India and Vietnam, poverty in small towns is worse than in large cities Poverty rate (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 a. India: Poverty rate in small towns is higher than in rural areas Rural areas Urban areas Small towns Medium towns 1983 1993–94 2004–05 Large towns Share of urban population that is poor (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 b. Vietnam: Urban poor are concentrated in the extra-small towns XS S M L XL Share of urban population Share of urban poor Source: World Bank 2011. Note: Poverty rates based on Uniform Recall Period (URP) and official poverty lines. Source: Lanjouw and Marra 2012. Note: XS = > 4k – 50k; S = 50k – 300k; M = 300k – 500k; L = 1m–5m for centrally governed and 0.5m–1m for locally governed; XL = > 5m. policies that nurture economic activity and improve residents’ access to basic services are implemented. The reality of the poverty– city-size gradient shows that policies that improve service delivery and foster nonfarm job creation in small towns and peri-urban areas can offer rural migrants better livelihoods, thus helping to reduce both urban and rural poverty. In countries where population density is high in smaller towns, the scale economies may be sufficiently large to make service delivery, including infrastructurerelated services, cost-effective. More than 200 cities and towns dot Bangladesh and Pakistan, yet urbanization in both of these countries is dominated by a few large metropolitan cities with a population of more than 1 million. Chittagong and Dhaka account for 43 percent of Bangladesh’s urban population; in Pakistan, eight cities each with a population of more than 1 million account for 58 percent of the urban population. Another 24 percent of the urban population in Pakistan resides in 48 cities with populations of 100,000 to 1 million. Evidence from these countries reveals that the incidence of poverty is highest in rural areas (43 percent), followed by smaller towns and cities (38 percent), and then metropolitan areas (26 percent) (Deichmann, Shilpi, and Vakis 2009). The MDGs, human capital, and disparities along the rural-urban spectrum Not all MDG-related services have similar characteristics. Investments in primary education, nutrition, and health care lay the foundations for the human capital endowed in individuals, who can carry it with them when they move and add to it if they migrate to places where related secondary and tertiary services are available. In this sense, primary education and health care are portable. Together, education, nutrition, and health care, combine to form human skills and abilities that have been powerfully linked to productivity growth and poverty reduction in the medium to longer run (Hanushek and Woessmann 2008; Commander and Svejnar 2011). As such, human capital is a fundamental ingredient for desirable job outcomes, in both rural and urban areas (World Bank 2013).
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Global Monitoring Report 2013 Rural
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© 2013 International Bank for Reco
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vi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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viii CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REP
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Foreword Global Monitoring Report (
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Acknowledgments This report has bee
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Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asia
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GMR 2013 Rural-Urban Dynamics and t
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4 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT
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10 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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Goals and Targets from the Millenni
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Progress toward the MDGs Only two y
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primary completion, and access to s
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FIGURE 1a Poverty rates (living on
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MDG 2 Achieve universal primary edu
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MDG 3 Promote gender equality and e
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MDG 4 Reduce child mortality In mos
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MDG 5 Reduce maternal mortality MDG
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MDG 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and
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FIGURE 6e Children under age 5 who
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Appendix Table A1.1 Classification
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ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits St
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