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122 RURAL-URBAN DISPARITIES AND DYNAMICS GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 In sum, these simulations explore the consequences of providing and financing government health services to reduce the U5MR of the rural population. The results suggest that if, by either mobilizing required resources or raising its own efficiency in the health sector, or both, a government manages to raise the level of real health services reaching the rural population, then it is possible to reduce the rural U5MR considerably. If the bulk of resources come in the form of foreign grants or efficiency gains, then progress in the form of a lower U5MR can come with broader repercussions that have a positive impact on other development indicators, including poverty reduction. But if most additional resources have to be mobilized from domestic sources, then progress on reducing U5MR would threaten to come at the expense of less progress in poverty reduction and other indicators, illustrating the difficult tradeoffs facing low-income countries and their governments. Notes 1. Because the estimates are derived from census information and because the definitions of “urban” used in the Chinese censuses have been changing, this finding should be interpreted with caution. Estimates for Indonesia indicate that the contribution of natural increase to urban growth declined steadily, from nearly 70 percent in the 1960s to 32 percent in the 1990s (UN 2011). 2. Ferré, Ferreira, and Lanjouw (2012) suggest that while “urban bias” was a much discussed concern during the 1970s and 1980s, following Lipton (1977), the idea of a “metropolitan bias” has not been widely emphasized in the poverty measurement literature. This is likely due, at least in part, to scant availability of data on living standards across finely defined city-size categories. 3. It should be noted that estimation of a complex concept such as “slum” will always be somewhat arbitrary and definition driven. By using a consistent definition in the same places at different points in time, genuine changes may be observed—particularly when broad averages are “drilled down” to examine the underlying changes in real conditions in individual cities. 4. The original target to improve the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020 was based on an estimation of close to 100 million slum dwellers in the world. Upon measurement of the slum population using the internationally agreed upon UN-Habitat definition of slums following the UN Expert Group Meeting of October 2002, it was learned that the global estimate of the slum population was in fact close to 1 billion (924 million). As a result, even though the slum target has been globally achieved, and in fact significantly surpassed 10 years ahead of schedule, there is little room for complacency given the existing magnitude of populations currently living in slums. 5. In April 2011, however, the UN Habitat Governing Council adopted a resolution to improve the measurement of tenure security and to generate globally comparable estimates. Observations using this method are being implemented in 25 cities around the world. 6. As a result of more rapid private consumption growth for mdg4u+fg than for the other scenarios, the health objectives can be achieved with a slightly smaller acceleration in government health spending and government consumption growth for mdg4u+fg. 7. Additional simulations showed that the domestic resources that could be mobilized through increased government borrowing were insufficient to finance the health policy of the last two scenarios (mdg4r+fg and mdg4r+tx). 8. For example, on the basis of surveys in six lowand middle-income countries, Chaudhury et al. (2006) found that, on average, primary health workers were absent 35 percent of the time. Other things being equal, a moderate gradual reduction in their absenteeism to 17.5 percent of their time by 2030 would correspond to an annual increase in their productivity by around 1.5 percent a year. References Alene, A, V. Manyong, G. Omanya, H. Mignouna, M. Bokanga, and G. Odhiambo. 2008. “Economic Efficiency and Supply Response of Women as Farm Managers: Comparative
GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 RURAL-URBAN DISPARITIES AND DYNAMICS 123 Evidence from Western Kenya.” World Development. 36 (7): 1247–1260. Au, Chun-Chung, and J. Vernon Henderson. 2006a. “Are Chinese Cities too Small?” Review of Economic Studies 73 (3): 549–76. ———. 2006b. “How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China.” Journal of Development Economics 80: 350–88. Baker, J. L. 2008. Urban poverty: A global view. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Bardasi, E., and Q. Wodon. 2008. “Who Pays the Most for Water? Alternative Providers and Service Costs in Niger.” Economics Bulletin 920: 1–10. Beegle K., J. De Weerdt, and S. Dercon. 2011. “Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey.” Review of Economics and Statistics 93: 1010–33. Bell, M., and S. Muhidin. 2008. “Cross-National Comparison of Internal Migration.” Report prepared for the 2009 Human Development Report, New York. Cali, M., and C. Menon. 2013. “Does Urbanisation Affect Rural Poverty? Evidence from Indian Districts.” Policy Research Working Paper 6338, World Bank, Washington, DC. Chandra, V., J. Y. Lin, and Y. Wang. 2013. “Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries.” Asian Development Review 30 (1): 1–32. Chen, N., P. Valente, and H. Zlotnik. 1998. “What Do We Know about Recent Trends in Urbanization?” In Migration, Urbanization, and Development: New Directions and Issues, edited by R. E. Bilsborrow. New York: United Nations Population Fund and Kluwer Academic Publishers, 59–88. Commander, S. and J. Svejnar. 2011. “Business Environment, Exports Ownership, and Firm Performance.” Review of Economics and Statistics 93 (1): 309–37. Coulombe, H. and P. Lanjouw. 2013. “Poverty, Access to Services and City Size in a Selection of African Countries,” Mimeo. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, DC. da Mata, Daniel, U. Deichmann, V. Henderson, S.V. Lall, and H. G. Wang. 2007. “Determinants of City Growth in Brazil.” Journal of Urban Economics 62 (2): 252–72. Datt, G., and M. Ravallion. 1996. Why have some Indian states done better than others at reducing rural poverty? Policy Research Working Paper 1594, World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 2009. “Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms?” Policy Research Working Paper 5103, World Bank, Washington, DC. Deichmann, U., F. Shilpi, and R. Vakis. 2009. “Urban Proximity, Agricultural Potential and Rural Non-farm Employment: Evidence from Bangladesh.” World Development 37 (3): 645–60. Deininger, K., J. Songqing, B. Adenew, S. Gebre- Selassie, and M. Demeke. 2003. “Market and Non-market Transfers of Land in Ethiopia: Implications for Efficiency, Equity, and Nonfarm Development.” Policy Research Working Paper 2992, World Bank, Washington, DC. Dercon, S., P. Krishnan, and S. Krutikova. Forthcoming. “Migration, Risk-Sharing and Subjective Well-being: Some Eevidence from India 1975–2005.” Mimeo, Oxford University, Oxford, UK. Do, Q. T., and L. Iyer. 2008. “Land Titling and Rural Transition in Vietnam.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 56, pp. 531–79 Do, Q. T., A. Levchenko and C. Raddatz. 2011. “Engendering Trade.” Background paper for 2012. World Development Report: Gender Equality and Development, Washington, DC: World Bank.. Dudwick, N., K. Hull, R. Katayama, F. Shilpi, and K. Simler. 2011. From Farm to Firm: Rural-Urban Transition in Developing Countries. World Bank, Washington, DC. http:// site.ebrary.com/id/10477343. Du Plessis, J. 2005. “The Growing Problem of Forced Evictions and the Crucial Importance of Community-based, Locally Appropriate Alternatives.” Environment and Urbanization 17 (1): 123–34. Durand-Lasserve, A. 2006. “Informal Settlements and the Millennium Development Goals: Global Policy Debates on Property Ownership and Security of Tenure.” Global Urban Development 2 (1): 1–15.
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Global Monitoring Report 2013 Rural
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© 2013 International Bank for Reco
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vi CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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viii CONTENTS GLOBAL MONITORING REP
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Foreword Global Monitoring Report (
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Acknowledgments This report has bee
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Abbreviations and Acronyms ADB Asia
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GMR 2013 Rural-Urban Dynamics and t
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4 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT
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10 OVERVIEW GLOBAL MONITORING REPOR
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Goals and Targets from the Millenni
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Progress toward the MDGs Only two y
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primary completion, and access to s
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FIGURE 1a Poverty rates (living on
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MDG 2 Achieve universal primary edu
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MDG 3 Promote gender equality and e
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MDG 4 Reduce child mortality In mos
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MDG 5 Reduce maternal mortality MDG
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MDG 6 Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and
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FIGURE 6e Children under age 5 who
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FIGURE 7b Access to sanitation by r
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Improving the measurement of develo
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1 Macroeconomic, Trade, and Aid Dev
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GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 MACRO
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GLOBAL MONITORING REPORT 2013 URBAN
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Appendix Table A1.1 Classification
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ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits St
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